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Article: A study of demographic changes under sustained below-replacement fertility in Hong Kong SAR

TitleA study of demographic changes under sustained below-replacement fertility in Hong Kong SAR
Authors
KeywordsDemographic change
Fertility
Hong Kong
Population aging
Issue Date2001
PublisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/socscimed
Citation
Social Science And Medicine, 2001, v. 53 n. 8, p. 1003-1009 How to Cite?
AbstractThe total fertility in Hong Kong SAR fell continuously below replacement in the past two decades and reached a level of 0.98 in 1998. The rate in 1981 was close to replacement at 1.93. In this paper the theoretical outcomes of long-lasting below-replacement fertility are identified with a view to gaining some analytical insight into the situation, where the population is experiencing such a striking demographic trend. In the absence of migration, Hong Kong SAR will see its population start to decline between 2008 and 2038, if the future course of fertility falls within these 'bounds'. Concurrently, the aging of population will be reaching unprecedented proportions. Should fertility remain at the present below-replacement level, i.e. the worse-case scenario, the proportion of population aged 65 years or older would increase to 44 per cent, and those aged under 15 years would decrease to six per cent, by 2048. As a result, the potential labour supply (those aged 15-64 years) would dwindle to only 50 per cent of the population, suggesting that there would be less than one person potentially working to support one dependent (who is likely to be a person aged 65 years or older). The socio-economic consequences of population aging are discussed. By analysing net immigration in the demographic process in the past, the way in which replacement migration would help alleviate the problem of population decline and population aging is also discussed. Copyright © 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/83001
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.814
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.894
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLee, Jen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChan, Ben_HK
dc.contributor.authorAu, Jen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:35:48Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:35:48Z-
dc.date.issued2001en_HK
dc.identifier.citationSocial Science And Medicine, 2001, v. 53 n. 8, p. 1003-1009en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0277-9536en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/83001-
dc.description.abstractThe total fertility in Hong Kong SAR fell continuously below replacement in the past two decades and reached a level of 0.98 in 1998. The rate in 1981 was close to replacement at 1.93. In this paper the theoretical outcomes of long-lasting below-replacement fertility are identified with a view to gaining some analytical insight into the situation, where the population is experiencing such a striking demographic trend. In the absence of migration, Hong Kong SAR will see its population start to decline between 2008 and 2038, if the future course of fertility falls within these 'bounds'. Concurrently, the aging of population will be reaching unprecedented proportions. Should fertility remain at the present below-replacement level, i.e. the worse-case scenario, the proportion of population aged 65 years or older would increase to 44 per cent, and those aged under 15 years would decrease to six per cent, by 2048. As a result, the potential labour supply (those aged 15-64 years) would dwindle to only 50 per cent of the population, suggesting that there would be less than one person potentially working to support one dependent (who is likely to be a person aged 65 years or older). The socio-economic consequences of population aging are discussed. By analysing net immigration in the demographic process in the past, the way in which replacement migration would help alleviate the problem of population decline and population aging is also discussed. Copyright © 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/socscimeden_HK
dc.relation.ispartofSocial Science and Medicineen_HK
dc.subjectDemographic changeen_HK
dc.subjectFertilityen_HK
dc.subjectHong Kongen_HK
dc.subjectPopulation agingen_HK
dc.titleA study of demographic changes under sustained below-replacement fertility in Hong Kong SARen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0277-9536&volume=53&spage=1003&epage=1009&date=2001&atitle=A+study+of+demographic+changes+under+sustained+below-replacement+fertility+in+Hong+Kong+SARen_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0277-9536(00)00395-6en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid11556770-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0034904641en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros68129en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0034904641&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume53en_HK
dc.identifier.issue8en_HK
dc.identifier.spage1003en_HK
dc.identifier.epage1009en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000170654300003-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLee, J=15745481800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, B=36765899400en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridAu, J=7101921220en_HK

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