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Article: A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China
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TitleA comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China
 
AuthorsYip, PSF1 1
Lam, KF1
Lau, EHY1
Chau, PH1
Tsang, KW1
Chao, A2
 
KeywordsCompeting risk
Counting process
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Time-varying fatality rate
 
Issue Date2005
 
PublisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/RSSA
 
CitationJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 2005, v. 168 n. 1, p. 233-243 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00345.x
 
AbstractIn an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.
 
ISSN0964-1998
2012 Impact Factor: 1.361
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.258
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00345.x
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000226837500013
 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSF
 
dc.contributor.authorLam, KF
 
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY
 
dc.contributor.authorChau, PH
 
dc.contributor.authorTsang, KW
 
dc.contributor.authorChao, A
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:35:36Z
 
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:35:36Z
 
dc.date.issued2005
 
dc.description.abstractIn an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.
 
dc.description.natureLink_to_subscribed_fulltext
 
dc.identifier.citationJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 2005, v. 168 n. 1, p. 233-243 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00345.x
 
dc.identifier.citeulike28045
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00345.x
 
dc.identifier.epage243
 
dc.identifier.hkuros104391
 
dc.identifier.hkuros121451
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000226837500013
 
dc.identifier.issn0964-1998
2012 Impact Factor: 1.361
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.258
 
dc.identifier.issue1
 
dc.identifier.openurl
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-12844256467
 
dc.identifier.spage233
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82982
 
dc.identifier.volume168
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/RSSA
 
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom
 
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.subjectCompeting risk
 
dc.subjectCounting process
 
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndrome
 
dc.subjectTime-varying fatality rate
 
dc.titleA comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong
  2. National Tsing Hua University