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Article: A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

TitleA comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China
Authors
KeywordsCompeting risk
Counting process
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Time-varying fatality rate
Issue Date2005
PublisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/RSSA
Citation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 2005, v. 168 n. 1, p. 233-243 How to Cite?
Abstract
In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82982
ISSN
2013 Impact Factor: 1.573
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLam, KFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChau, PHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTsang, KWen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChao, Aen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:35:36Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:35:36Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 2005, v. 168 n. 1, p. 233-243en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0964-1998en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82982-
dc.description.abstractIn an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/RSSAen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Societyen_HK
dc.subjectCompeting risken_HK
dc.subjectCounting processen_HK
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndromeen_HK
dc.subjectTime-varying fatality rateen_HK
dc.titleA comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, Chinaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0964-1998&volume=168&issue=1&spage=233&epage=243&date=2005&atitle=A+comparison+study+of+realtime+fatality+rates:+severe+acute+respiratory+syndrome+in+Hong+Kong,+Singapore,+Taiwan,+Toronto+and+Beijing,+Chinaen_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLam, KF: hrntlkf@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailChau, PH: phpchau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLam, KF=rp00718en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityChau, PH=rp00574en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00345.xen_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-12844256467en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros104391en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros121451-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-12844256467&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume168en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage233en_HK
dc.identifier.epage243en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000226837500013-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, KF=8948421200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EHY=7103086074en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChau, PH=7102266397en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTsang, KW=7201555024en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChao, A=7102703038en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike28045-

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