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Article: How to predict election winners from a poll

TitleHow to predict election winners from a poll
Authors
Issue Date1997
PublisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/02664763.asp
Citation
Journal Of Applied Statistics, 1997, v. 24 n. 1, p. 11-23 How to Cite?
AbstractSuppose that we have k candidates in an election and that the top m winners will be elected. Assume that the voters can select up to m'(< k) candidates and that the votes are non-transferable. In the election polling, a pollster will normally report on the shares of votes received by the candidates, together with their standard errors. However, such statements cannot answer some basic questions, such as 'who will win the election' or 'how well will the m leaders in the poll perform in the final election'. In this paper, we use subset selection techniques to predict the winners. Furthermore, we construct predictive lower bounds for certain random variables to predict the election result of the leaders in an election poll.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82973
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.419
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.501
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYu, PLHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLam, Ken_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:35:30Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:35:30Z-
dc.date.issued1997en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Applied Statistics, 1997, v. 24 n. 1, p. 11-23en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0266-4763en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82973-
dc.description.abstractSuppose that we have k candidates in an election and that the top m winners will be elected. Assume that the voters can select up to m'(< k) candidates and that the votes are non-transferable. In the election polling, a pollster will normally report on the shares of votes received by the candidates, together with their standard errors. However, such statements cannot answer some basic questions, such as 'who will win the election' or 'how well will the m leaders in the poll perform in the final election'. In this paper, we use subset selection techniques to predict the winners. Furthermore, we construct predictive lower bounds for certain random variables to predict the election result of the leaders in an election poll.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/02664763.aspen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Applied Statisticsen_HK
dc.titleHow to predict election winners from a pollen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0266-4763&volume=24&issue=1&spage=11&epage=23&date=1997&atitle=How+to+predict+election+winners+from+a+pollen_HK
dc.identifier.emailYu, PLH: plhyu@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYu, PLH=rp00835en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-8444234766en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros26302en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-8444234766&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume24en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage11en_HK
dc.identifier.epage23en_HK
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYu, PLH=7403599794en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, K=36492945700en_HK

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