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Article: Non-parametric back-projection of HIV positive tests using multinomial and Poisson settings

TitleNon-parametric back-projection of HIV positive tests using multinomial and Poisson settings
Authors
KeywordsBack-calculation
Back-projection
Diagnoses
HIV/AIDS
Hong Kong
Incidence
Multinomial
Poisson
Simulation
Issue Date2004
PublisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/02664763.asp
Citation
Journal Of Applied Statistics, 2004, v. 31 n. 5, p. 553-564 How to Cite?
AbstractBack-projection is a commonly used method in reconstructing HIV incidence. Instead of using AIDS incidence data in back-projection, this paper uses HIV positive tests data. Both multinomial and Poisson settings are used. The two settings give similar results when a parametric form or step function is assumed for the infection curve. However, this may not be true when the HIV infection in each year is characterized by a different parameter. This paper attempts to use simulation studies to compare these two settings by constructing various scenarios for the infection curve. Results show that both methods give approximately the same estimates of the number of HIV infections in the past, whilst the estimates for HIV infections in the recent past differ a lot. The multinomial setting always gives a levelling-off pattern for the recent past, while the Poisson setting is more sensitive to the change in the shape of the HIV infection curve. Nonetheless, the multinomial setting gives a relatively narrower point-wise probability interval. When the size of the epidemic is large, the narrow probability interval may be under-estimating the true underlying variation. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82935
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.419
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.501
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChau, PHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:35:04Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:35:04Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Applied Statistics, 2004, v. 31 n. 5, p. 553-564en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0266-4763en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82935-
dc.description.abstractBack-projection is a commonly used method in reconstructing HIV incidence. Instead of using AIDS incidence data in back-projection, this paper uses HIV positive tests data. Both multinomial and Poisson settings are used. The two settings give similar results when a parametric form or step function is assumed for the infection curve. However, this may not be true when the HIV infection in each year is characterized by a different parameter. This paper attempts to use simulation studies to compare these two settings by constructing various scenarios for the infection curve. Results show that both methods give approximately the same estimates of the number of HIV infections in the past, whilst the estimates for HIV infections in the recent past differ a lot. The multinomial setting always gives a levelling-off pattern for the recent past, while the Poisson setting is more sensitive to the change in the shape of the HIV infection curve. Nonetheless, the multinomial setting gives a relatively narrower point-wise probability interval. When the size of the epidemic is large, the narrow probability interval may be under-estimating the true underlying variation. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/02664763.aspen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Applied Statisticsen_HK
dc.subjectBack-calculationen_HK
dc.subjectBack-projectionen_HK
dc.subjectDiagnosesen_HK
dc.subjectHIV/AIDSen_HK
dc.subjectHong Kongen_HK
dc.subjectIncidenceen_HK
dc.subjectMultinomialen_HK
dc.subjectPoissonen_HK
dc.subjectSimulationen_HK
dc.titleNon-parametric back-projection of HIV positive tests using multinomial and Poisson settingsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0266-4763&volume=31&issue=5&spage=553&epage=564&date=2004&atitle=Non-parametric+back-projection+of+HIV+positive+tests+using+multinomial+and+Poisson+settingsen_HK
dc.identifier.emailChau, PH: phpchau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityChau, PH=rp00574en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/02664760410001681792en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-3442902766en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros107100en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-3442902766&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume31en_HK
dc.identifier.issue5en_HK
dc.identifier.spage553en_HK
dc.identifier.epage564en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000222783400005-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChau, PH=7102266397en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK

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