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Article: Modelling SARS data using threshold geometric process

TitleModelling SARS data using threshold geometric process
Authors
KeywordsGeometric process
Monotone trend
Moving window
Non-parametric method
Threshold model
Turning points
Issue Date2006
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0277-6715/
Citation
Statistics In Medicine, 2006, v. 25 n. 11, p. 1826-1839 How to Cite?
AbstractDuring the outbreak of an epidemic disease, for example, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the number of daily infected cases often exhibit multiple trends: monotone increasing during the growing stage, stationary during the stabilized stage and then decreasing during the declining stage. Lam first proposed modelling a monotone trend by a geometric process (GP) {X i, i = 1, 2,...} directly such that {a i-1X i, i = 1, 2,...} forms a renewal process for some ratio α > 0 which measures the direction and strength of the trend. Parameters can be conveniently estimated using the LSE methods. Previous GP models limit to data with only a single trend. For data with multiple trends, we propose a moving window technique to locate the turning point(s). The threshold GP model is fitted to the SARS data from four regions in 2003. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82888
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.533
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.811
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChan, JSKen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYu, PLHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLam, Yen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHo, APKen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:34:33Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:34:33Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_HK
dc.identifier.citationStatistics In Medicine, 2006, v. 25 n. 11, p. 1826-1839en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0277-6715en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82888-
dc.description.abstractDuring the outbreak of an epidemic disease, for example, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the number of daily infected cases often exhibit multiple trends: monotone increasing during the growing stage, stationary during the stabilized stage and then decreasing during the declining stage. Lam first proposed modelling a monotone trend by a geometric process (GP) {X i, i = 1, 2,...} directly such that {a i-1X i, i = 1, 2,...} forms a renewal process for some ratio α > 0 which measures the direction and strength of the trend. Parameters can be conveniently estimated using the LSE methods. Previous GP models limit to data with only a single trend. For data with multiple trends, we propose a moving window technique to locate the turning point(s). The threshold GP model is fitted to the SARS data from four regions in 2003. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0277-6715/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofStatistics in Medicineen_HK
dc.rightsStatistics in Medicine. Copyright © John Wiley & Sons Ltd.en_HK
dc.subjectGeometric processen_HK
dc.subjectMonotone trenden_HK
dc.subjectMoving windowen_HK
dc.subjectNon-parametric methoden_HK
dc.subjectThreshold modelen_HK
dc.subjectTurning pointsen_HK
dc.titleModelling SARS data using threshold geometric processen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0277-6715&volume=25&issue=11&spage=1826&epage=1839&date=2005&atitle=Modelling+SARS+data+using+threshold+geometric+processen_HK
dc.identifier.emailYu, PLH: plhyu@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYu, PLH=rp00835en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/sim.2376en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid16345017-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33744802900en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros116638en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33744802900&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume25en_HK
dc.identifier.issue11en_HK
dc.identifier.spage1826en_HK
dc.identifier.epage1839en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000238088000006-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, JSK=24467617500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYu, PLH=7403599794en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, Y=7202563897en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, APK=13908274700en_HK

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