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Article: A chain multinomial model for estimating the real-time fatality rate of a disease, with an application to severe acute respiratory syndrome

TitleA chain multinomial model for estimating the real-time fatality rate of a disease, with an application to severe acute respiratory syndrome
Authors
KeywordsDisease outbreaks
Epidemiologic methods
Fatality rate
Models, statistical
Multinomial model
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Issue Date2005
PublisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/
Citation
American Journal Of Epidemiology, 2005, v. 161 n. 7, p. 700-706 How to Cite?
AbstractIt is well known that statistics using cumulative data are insensitive to changes. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of fatality rates are of the above type, which may not be able to reflect the latest changes in fatality due to treatment or government policy in a timely fashion. Here, the authors propose an estimate of a real-time fatality rate based on a chain multinomial model with a kernel function. It is more accurate than the WHO estimate in describing fatality, especially earlier in the course of an epidemic. The estimator provides useful information for public health policy makers for understanding the severity of the disease or evaluating the effects of treatments or policies within a shorter time period, which is critical in disease control during an outbreak. Simulation results showed that the performance of the proposed estimator is superior to that of the WHO estimator in terms of its sensitivity to changes and its timeliness in reflecting the severity of the disease. Copyright © 2005 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82643
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 5.036
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.047
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLam, KFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHuggins, RMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:31:44Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:31:44Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_HK
dc.identifier.citationAmerican Journal Of Epidemiology, 2005, v. 161 n. 7, p. 700-706en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0002-9262en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82643-
dc.description.abstractIt is well known that statistics using cumulative data are insensitive to changes. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of fatality rates are of the above type, which may not be able to reflect the latest changes in fatality due to treatment or government policy in a timely fashion. Here, the authors propose an estimate of a real-time fatality rate based on a chain multinomial model with a kernel function. It is more accurate than the WHO estimate in describing fatality, especially earlier in the course of an epidemic. The estimator provides useful information for public health policy makers for understanding the severity of the disease or evaluating the effects of treatments or policies within a shorter time period, which is critical in disease control during an outbreak. Simulation results showed that the performance of the proposed estimator is superior to that of the WHO estimator in terms of its sensitivity to changes and its timeliness in reflecting the severity of the disease. Copyright © 2005 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofAmerican Journal of Epidemiologyen_HK
dc.rightsAmerican Journal of Epidemiology. Copyright © Oxford University Press.en_HK
dc.subjectDisease outbreaksen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologic methodsen_HK
dc.subjectFatality rateen_HK
dc.subjectModels, statisticalen_HK
dc.subjectMultinomial modelen_HK
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndromeen_HK
dc.subject.meshEpidemiologic Methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - mortalityen_HK
dc.subject.meshWorld Health Organizationen_HK
dc.titleA chain multinomial model for estimating the real-time fatality rate of a disease, with an application to severe acute respiratory syndromeen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0002-9262&volume=161&issue=7&spage=700&epage=706&date=2005&atitle=A+chain+multinomial+model+for+estimating+the+real-time+fatality+rate+of+a+disease,+with+an+application+to+severe+acute+respiratory+syndromeen_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLam, KF: hrntlkf@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLam, KF=rp00718en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/aje/kwi088en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid15781959-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-15744375528en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros104448en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-15744375528&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume161en_HK
dc.identifier.issue7en_HK
dc.identifier.spage700en_HK
dc.identifier.epage706en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000227954600011-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EHY=7103086074en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, KF=8948421200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHuggins, RM=7102879186en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike141526-

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