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Article: Estimating the basic reproductive number in the general epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptible individuals

TitleEstimating the basic reproductive number in the general epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptible individuals
Authors
KeywordsBasic reproductive number
Counting process
Epidemic model
Kernel-smoothing method
Martingale estimating equations
Naturally immune
Susceptible
Issue Date2008
PublisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/SJOS
Citation
Scandinavian Journal Of Statistics, 2008, v. 35 n. 4, p. 650-663 How to Cite?
AbstractIn any epidemic, there may exist an unidentified subpopulation which might be naturally immune or isolated and who will not be involved in the transmission of the disease. Estimation of key parameters, for example, the basic reproductive number, without accounting for this possibility would underestimate the severity of the epidemics. Here, we propose a procedure to estimate the basic reproductive number (R 0) in an epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptibles. The infection process is usually not completely observed, but is reconstructed by a kernel-smoothing method under a counting process framework. Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the estimators for major epidemics. We illustrate the procedure using the Abakaliki smallpox data. © 2008 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82048
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.908
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.362
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:24:56Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:24:56Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationScandinavian Journal Of Statistics, 2008, v. 35 n. 4, p. 650-663en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0303-6898en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/82048-
dc.description.abstractIn any epidemic, there may exist an unidentified subpopulation which might be naturally immune or isolated and who will not be involved in the transmission of the disease. Estimation of key parameters, for example, the basic reproductive number, without accounting for this possibility would underestimate the severity of the epidemics. Here, we propose a procedure to estimate the basic reproductive number (R 0) in an epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptibles. The infection process is usually not completely observed, but is reconstructed by a kernel-smoothing method under a counting process framework. Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the estimators for major epidemics. We illustrate the procedure using the Abakaliki smallpox data. © 2008 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/SJOSen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofScandinavian Journal of Statisticsen_HK
dc.rightsScandinavian Journal of Statistics. Copyright © Blackwell Publishing Ltd.en_HK
dc.subjectBasic reproductive numberen_HK
dc.subjectCounting processen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemic modelen_HK
dc.subjectKernel-smoothing methoden_HK
dc.subjectMartingale estimating equationsen_HK
dc.subjectNaturally immuneen_HK
dc.subjectSusceptibleen_HK
dc.titleEstimating the basic reproductive number in the general epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptible individualsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0303-6898&volume=35&spage=650&epage=663&date=2008&atitle=Estimating+the+Basic+Reproductive+Number+in+the+General+Epidemic+Model+with+an+Unknown+Initial+Number+of+Susceptible+Individualsen_HK
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1467-9469.2008.00594.xen_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-55849144003en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros168691en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-55849144003&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume35en_HK
dc.identifier.issue4en_HK
dc.identifier.spage650en_HK
dc.identifier.epage663en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000260824400005-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EHY=7103086074en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike3511017-

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