Planned conversion of rural land: A case study of planning applications for housing and open storage uses in agriculture zones

Abstract

This paper uses 1372 sets of cross-sectional data to evaluate empirically the probit estimates for five hypotheses regarding planning applications for the conversion of leasehold land lying fallow or under active agriculture to nonagricultural uses in agriculture zones in Hong Kong. Though the agriculture zones occupy just 5.6% of all zoned land and the agricultural sector generates 0.1% of GDP and 0.9% of jobs, they attract a disproportionate 17.6% of planning applications. It is established that the Town Planning Board prefers to release development rights to indigenous villagers to construct 'small houses' than to container storage operators, though open storage of containers is a derived demand generated by an international container port. However, the fact that the Hong Kong government announced a major housing supply programme in July 1997 has not affected the pattern of decisions for agriculture zones. Indeed, for all nonagricultural use applications, the board has shown a dislike for large-scale development and been particularly more restrictive as regards applications arising in Sai Kung. This discussion is made with reference to the potential contribution of the modelling approach to planning research in general and the rural land-use policies and law of Hong Kong in particular.