File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Forecasting the number of inpatients with schizophrenia

TitleForecasting the number of inpatients with schizophrenia
Authors
KeywordsForecast
Inpatient
Number
Schizophrenia
Trend analysis
Issue Date2004
PublisherBlackwell Publishing Asia. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/PCN
Citation
Psychiatry And Clinical Neurosciences, 2004, v. 58 n. 5, p. 573-578 How to Cite?
AbstractThere has been much discussion in Japan regarding the reduction of psychiatric beds. For effective healthcare planning, reliable forecasting is important. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of future schizophrenic inpatients using quantitative methodology. Data was obtained from a survey of schizophrenic inpatients conducted annually at the end of March by the Niigata Prefecture from 1974 to 2003.The numbers of schizophrenic inpatients in different age groups over a long period of time were used in a precise time-series analysis to establish trends. Then these past trends were used to forecast inpatient numbers for future years. The pattern of ascents and declines of each inpatient group stratified by age appeared to be duplicated by the next older age group 10 years later. The numbers of inpatients with schizophrenia in 2013 and 2023 are projected to be 78.5% and 56.7% of the number of patients in 2003, respectively. By 2033, the number is forecast to decline to 41.0% of the number in 2003. This study forecasts that inpatients with schizophrenia will decrease substantially over the next several decades. Policy should be designed to reflect this trend.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/81480
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.025
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.928
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSomeya, Ten_HK
dc.contributor.authorSuzuki, Yen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSham, PCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSiu, WTen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T08:18:16Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T08:18:16Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationPsychiatry And Clinical Neurosciences, 2004, v. 58 n. 5, p. 573-578en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1323-1316en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/81480-
dc.description.abstractThere has been much discussion in Japan regarding the reduction of psychiatric beds. For effective healthcare planning, reliable forecasting is important. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of future schizophrenic inpatients using quantitative methodology. Data was obtained from a survey of schizophrenic inpatients conducted annually at the end of March by the Niigata Prefecture from 1974 to 2003.The numbers of schizophrenic inpatients in different age groups over a long period of time were used in a precise time-series analysis to establish trends. Then these past trends were used to forecast inpatient numbers for future years. The pattern of ascents and declines of each inpatient group stratified by age appeared to be duplicated by the next older age group 10 years later. The numbers of inpatients with schizophrenia in 2013 and 2023 are projected to be 78.5% and 56.7% of the number of patients in 2003, respectively. By 2033, the number is forecast to decline to 41.0% of the number in 2003. This study forecasts that inpatients with schizophrenia will decrease substantially over the next several decades. Policy should be designed to reflect this trend.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Asia. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/PCNen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofPsychiatry and Clinical Neurosciencesen_HK
dc.subjectForecasten_HK
dc.subjectInpatienten_HK
dc.subjectNumberen_HK
dc.subjectSchizophreniaen_HK
dc.subjectTrend analysisen_HK
dc.titleForecasting the number of inpatients with schizophreniaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1323-1316&volume=58&spage=573&epage=578&date=2004&atitle=Forecasting+the+number+of+inpatients+with+schizophreniaen_HK
dc.identifier.emailSham, PC: pcsham@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authoritySham, PC=rp00459en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1440-1819.2004.01302.xen_HK
dc.identifier.pmid15482591-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-7944238017en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros97052en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-7944238017&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume58en_HK
dc.identifier.issue5en_HK
dc.identifier.spage573en_HK
dc.identifier.epage578en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000224433100018-
dc.publisher.placeAustraliaen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSomeya, T=7102278589en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSuzuki, Y=7407200625en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSham, PC=34573429300en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSiu, WT=7103093073en_HK

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats