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Article: Cohort analysis technique for long-term manpower planning: The case of a Hong Kong tertiary institution

TitleCohort analysis technique for long-term manpower planning: The case of a Hong Kong tertiary institution
Authors
Issue Date1994
PublisherPalgrave Macmillan Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/index.html
Citation
Journal Of The Operational Research Society, 1994, v. 45 n. 6, p. 696-709 How to Cite?
AbstractThis paper considers the problem of long-term manpower planning on the number of teaching staff for the case of a tertiary institution - the City Polytechnic of Hong Kong (CPHK). Due to the high turnover experienced in recent years, it is found necessary to study the wastage pattern of staff, defined as the number of new appointees who have left CPHK employment, rather than simply addressing just the issue of strength (namely number in post). A cohort analysis technique is therefore applied to characterize statistically the wastage rate as related to the length of service of individual cohorts of staff, being groups of newcomers joining CPHK in the same periods of time. This results in a log-normal model, showing a significant cohort specific effect on the wastage behaviour. Extending this cohort analysis technique, together with double exponential smoothing forecasts, to future retention rates (1 - cumulative wastage rates), a long-term planning model is constructed to study the relation between expected yearly recruitment levels and the target manpower requirements for the future five-year planning horizon. While the idea and model developed here are generally applicable, the present computational results provide valuable decision supports for an actual case study, for CPHK in particular.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/75252
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.225
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.026

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChu, Sydney CKen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLin, Carrie KYen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-06T07:09:23Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-06T07:09:23Z-
dc.date.issued1994en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of The Operational Research Society, 1994, v. 45 n. 6, p. 696-709en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0160-5682en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/75252-
dc.description.abstractThis paper considers the problem of long-term manpower planning on the number of teaching staff for the case of a tertiary institution - the City Polytechnic of Hong Kong (CPHK). Due to the high turnover experienced in recent years, it is found necessary to study the wastage pattern of staff, defined as the number of new appointees who have left CPHK employment, rather than simply addressing just the issue of strength (namely number in post). A cohort analysis technique is therefore applied to characterize statistically the wastage rate as related to the length of service of individual cohorts of staff, being groups of newcomers joining CPHK in the same periods of time. This results in a log-normal model, showing a significant cohort specific effect on the wastage behaviour. Extending this cohort analysis technique, together with double exponential smoothing forecasts, to future retention rates (1 - cumulative wastage rates), a long-term planning model is constructed to study the relation between expected yearly recruitment levels and the target manpower requirements for the future five-year planning horizon. While the idea and model developed here are generally applicable, the present computational results provide valuable decision supports for an actual case study, for CPHK in particular.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherPalgrave Macmillan Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/index.htmlen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Operational Research Societyen_HK
dc.rightsJournal the of Operational Research Society. Copyright © Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.en_HK
dc.titleCohort analysis technique for long-term manpower planning: The case of a Hong Kong tertiary institutionen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0160-5682&volume=45 No6&spage=696&epage=709&date=1994&atitle=Cohort+analysis+technique+for+long-term+manpower+planning:+the+case+of+a+Hong+Kong+tertiary+institutionen_HK
dc.identifier.emailChu, Sydney CK:schu@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityChu, Sydney CK=rp00685en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.2307/2584460-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0028448726en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros35794en_HK
dc.identifier.volume45en_HK
dc.identifier.issue6en_HK
dc.identifier.spage696en_HK
dc.identifier.epage709en_HK
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChu, Sydney CK=7403619384en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLin, Carrie KY=8067230800en_HK

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