A Conjectural Variation Based Method To Develop Bidding Strategies For Generation Companies In Electricity Market

Abstract

After a brief description of fundamentals of the conjectural variation (CV) method, a novel CV-based method to develop optimal bidding strategies under incomplete information for generation companies participating in an electricity market are presented, with an objective of profit maximization. Through the theoretical analysis and the results of calculation examples it is shown that the classical game theory based bidding strategies is only a special case of the solution family of the presented method. By using the proposed method, different Nash equilibria of the electricity market could be attained corresponding to different CV sets assumed by generation companies. Conclusions obtained from theoretical analysis are well demonstrated by numerical simulation results.

介紹了微增響應猜測法(Conjectural Variation,CV)的基本概念,提出了基于這種方法構造發電公司在不完全信息情況下的最優投標策略。通過理論分析和算例計算,結果表明基于經典博弈理論構造的發電公司的最優投標策略是該方法的一種特例。采用該方法進行市場模擬時,對各發電公司不同的微增響應猜測進行組合,可以得到不同的市場均衡點,且均為Nash均衡點。