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Book Chapter: Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-entry Competitions by a Simple Method

TitleApproximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-entry Competitions by a Simple Method
Authors
Issue Date2008
PublisherElsevier.
Citation
Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-entry Competitions by a Simple Method. In Hausch, DB & Ziemba, WT (Eds.), Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets, p. 51-65. San Diego: Elsevier, 2008 How to Cite?
AbstractTo predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g., horse races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple winning probabilities. This simple model is implied by assuming that the underlying model (e.g., running times in horse racing) is the independent exponential or extreme-value distribution. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) proposed to use normal and gamma distributions, respectively, for the running time. However, both the Henery and Stern models are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone et al. (1992b) have shown that the Henery and Stern models fit better than the Harville model for particular horse racing datasets. In this chapter, we first give a theoretical result for the limiting case that all the horses have the same abilities. This theoretical result motivates an approximation of ordering probabilities for the Henery and Stern models. We then show empirically that this approximation works well in practice.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/64961

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLo, VSYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorBacon-Shone, JHen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-13T05:06:33Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-13T05:06:33Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationApproximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-entry Competitions by a Simple Method. In Hausch, DB & Ziemba, WT (Eds.), Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets, p. 51-65. San Diego: Elsevier, 2008en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/64961-
dc.description.abstractTo predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g., horse races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple winning probabilities. This simple model is implied by assuming that the underlying model (e.g., running times in horse racing) is the independent exponential or extreme-value distribution. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) proposed to use normal and gamma distributions, respectively, for the running time. However, both the Henery and Stern models are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone et al. (1992b) have shown that the Henery and Stern models fit better than the Harville model for particular horse racing datasets. In this chapter, we first give a theoretical result for the limiting case that all the horses have the same abilities. This theoretical result motivates an approximation of ordering probabilities for the Henery and Stern models. We then show empirically that this approximation works well in practice.-
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherElsevier.en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofHandbook of Sports and Lottery Marketsen_HK
dc.titleApproximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-entry Competitions by a Simple Methoden_HK
dc.typeBook_Chapteren_HK
dc.identifier.emailBacon-Shone, JH: johnbs@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityBacon-Shone, JH=rp00056en_HK
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/B978-044450744-0.50007-X-
dc.identifier.hkuros150527en_HK

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