File Download
Supplementary

Article: Modelling the winning probabilities

TitleModelling the winning probabilities
Authors
Issue DateMay-1992
PublisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.
Citation
Research Report, n. 10, p. 1-14 How to Cite?
AbstractPrevious studies conclude that a favourite-longshot bias exists in win betting at horse race tracks and this is interpreted as risk-preferring behaviour. However, the statistical techniques used contain certain weaknesses, including the neglect of the necessary correlation between bet fractions which must sum to one in every race. We propose some classes of logit models to analyse the relationship between winning probabilities and the bet fractions. A simple logit model is proposed after going through a modelling process and. by Cox's test, it is preferred to previous models (Ali (1977) and Asch, Malkiel & Quandt (1984)). Empirical results are obtained for several racetracks in the U.S., Hong Kong, Japan and China. No strong conclusion for risk preference can be maintained.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60988

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBacon-Shone, J-
dc.contributor.authorLo, VSY-
dc.contributor.authorBusche, K-
dc.date.accessioned2010-06-02T07:05:50Z-
dc.date.available2010-06-02T07:05:50Z-
dc.date.issued1992-05-
dc.identifier.citationResearch Report, n. 10, p. 1-14en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60988-
dc.description.abstractPrevious studies conclude that a favourite-longshot bias exists in win betting at horse race tracks and this is interpreted as risk-preferring behaviour. However, the statistical techniques used contain certain weaknesses, including the neglect of the necessary correlation between bet fractions which must sum to one in every race. We propose some classes of logit models to analyse the relationship between winning probabilities and the bet fractions. A simple logit model is proposed after going through a modelling process and. by Cox's test, it is preferred to previous models (Ali (1977) and Asch, Malkiel & Quandt (1984)). Empirical results are obtained for several racetracks in the U.S., Hong Kong, Japan and China. No strong conclusion for risk preference can be maintained.en_HK
dc.language.isoengen_HK
dc.publisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofResearch Report-
dc.rightsAuthor holds the copyright-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleModelling the winning probabilitiesen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.description.naturepostprint-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats