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Article: Modelling the winning probabilities
| Title | Modelling the winning probabilities |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Issue Date | May-1992 |
| Publisher | University of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics. |
| Citation | Research Report, n. 10, p. 1-14 How to Cite? |
| Abstract | Previous studies conclude that a favourite-longshot bias exists in win betting at horse race tracks and this is interpreted as risk-preferring behaviour. However, the statistical techniques used contain certain weaknesses, including the neglect of the necessary correlation between bet fractions which must sum to one in every race. We propose some classes of logit models to analyse the relationship between winning probabilities and the bet fractions. A simple logit model is proposed after going through a modelling process and. by Cox's test, it is preferred to previous models (Ali (1977) and Asch, Malkiel & Quandt (1984)). Empirical results are obtained for several racetracks in the U.S., Hong Kong, Japan and China. No strong conclusion for risk preference can be maintained. |
| Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/60988 |
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Bacon-Shone, J | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Lo, VSY | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Busche, K | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2010-06-02T07:05:50Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2010-06-02T07:05:50Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 1992-05 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | Research Report, n. 10, p. 1-14 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/60988 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | Previous studies conclude that a favourite-longshot bias exists in win betting at horse race tracks and this is interpreted as risk-preferring behaviour. However, the statistical techniques used contain certain weaknesses, including the neglect of the necessary correlation between bet fractions which must sum to one in every race. We propose some classes of logit models to analyse the relationship between winning probabilities and the bet fractions. A simple logit model is proposed after going through a modelling process and. by Cox's test, it is preferred to previous models (Ali (1977) and Asch, Malkiel & Quandt (1984)). Empirical results are obtained for several racetracks in the U.S., Hong Kong, Japan and China. No strong conclusion for risk preference can be maintained. | en_HK |
| dc.language.iso | eng | en_HK |
| dc.publisher | University of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics. | en_HK |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Research Report | - |
| dc.rights | Author holds the copyright | - |
| dc.title | Modelling the winning probabilities | en_HK |
| dc.type | Article | en_HK |
| dc.description.nature | postprint | - |