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Article: An approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions
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TitleAn approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions
 
AuthorsLo, VSY
Bacon-Shone, J
 
KeywordsOrdering probabilities
Horse-races
Running time distributions
 
Issue Date1992
 
PublisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.
 
CitationResearch Report, n. 16, p. 1-17 [How to Cite?]
 
AbstractTo predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g. horse-races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple, winning probabilities. This simple model essentially assumes the underlying model (e.g. running time in horse-racing) is independent exponential. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) respectively proposed to use normal and gamma distributions for the running time. However both the Henery and Stern model are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone, Lo & Busche (1992,b) have shown that the Henery model fits better in horse-racing using particular data sets. In this paper, we propose to use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which approximate both the Henery and Stern model quite well. Using Hong Kong. U.S. and Japanese data, a large scale empirical investigation is undertaken.
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorLo, VSY
 
dc.contributor.authorBacon-Shone, J
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-06-02T04:57:54Z
 
dc.date.available2010-06-02T04:57:54Z
 
dc.date.issued1992
 
dc.description.abstractTo predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g. horse-races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple, winning probabilities. This simple model essentially assumes the underlying model (e.g. running time in horse-racing) is independent exponential. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) respectively proposed to use normal and gamma distributions for the running time. However both the Henery and Stern model are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone, Lo & Busche (1992,b) have shown that the Henery model fits better in horse-racing using particular data sets. In this paper, we propose to use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which approximate both the Henery and Stern model quite well. Using Hong Kong. U.S. and Japanese data, a large scale empirical investigation is undertaken.
 
dc.description.naturepostprint
 
dc.identifier.citationResearch Report, n. 16, p. 1-17 [How to Cite?]
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60982
 
dc.language.isoeng
 
dc.publisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.
 
dc.rightsAuthor holds the copyright
 
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License
 
dc.subjectOrdering probabilities
 
dc.subjectHorse-races
 
dc.subjectRunning time distributions
 
dc.titleAn approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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<contributor.author>Bacon-Shone, J</contributor.author>
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<description.abstract>To predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g. horse-races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple, winning probabilities. This simple model essentially assumes the underlying model (e.g. running time in horse-racing) is independent exponential. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) respectively proposed to use normal and gamma distributions for the running time. However both the Henery and Stern model are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone, Lo &amp; Busche (1992,b) have shown that the Henery model fits better in horse-racing using particular data sets. In this paper, we propose to use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which approximate both the Henery and Stern model quite well. Using Hong Kong. U.S. and Japanese data, a large scale empirical investigation is undertaken.</description.abstract>
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<publisher>University of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.</publisher>
<rights>Author holds the copyright</rights>
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<subject>Ordering probabilities</subject>
<subject>Horse-races</subject>
<subject>Running time distributions</subject>
<title>An approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions</title>
<type>Article</type>
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