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Article: An approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions

TitleAn approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions
Authors
KeywordsOrdering probabilities
Horse-races
Running time distributions
Issue DateJun-1992
PublisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.
Citation
Research Report, n. 16, p. 1-17 How to Cite?
AbstractTo predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g. horse-races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple, winning probabilities. This simple model essentially assumes the underlying model (e.g. running time in horse-racing) is independent exponential. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) respectively proposed to use normal and gamma distributions for the running time. However both the Henery and Stern model are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone, Lo & Busche (1992,b) have shown that the Henery model fits better in horse-racing using particular data sets. In this paper, we propose to use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which approximate both the Henery and Stern model quite well. Using Hong Kong. U.S. and Japanese data, a large scale empirical investigation is undertaken.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60982

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLo, VSY-
dc.contributor.authorBacon-Shone, J-
dc.date.accessioned2010-06-02T04:57:54Z-
dc.date.available2010-06-02T04:57:54Z-
dc.date.issued1992-06-
dc.identifier.citationResearch Report, n. 16, p. 1-17en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60982-
dc.description.abstractTo predict the ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitions (e.g. horse-races), Harville (1973) proposed a simple way of computing the ordering probabilities based on the simple, winning probabilities. This simple model essentially assumes the underlying model (e.g. running time in horse-racing) is independent exponential. Henery (1981) and Stern (1990) respectively proposed to use normal and gamma distributions for the running time. However both the Henery and Stern model are too complicated to use in practice. Bacon-Shone, Lo & Busche (1992,b) have shown that the Henery model fits better in horse-racing using particular data sets. In this paper, we propose to use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which approximate both the Henery and Stern model quite well. Using Hong Kong. U.S. and Japanese data, a large scale empirical investigation is undertaken.en_HK
dc.language.isoengen_HK
dc.publisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.en_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.rightsAuthor holds the copyright-
dc.subjectOrdering probabilitiesen_HK
dc.subjectHorse-racesen_HK
dc.subjectRunning time distributionsen_HK
dc.titleAn approximation to ordering probabilities of multi-entry competitionsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.description.naturepostprint-

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