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Article: A modified racetrack betting system

TitleA modified racetrack betting system
Authors
KeywordsRacetrack betting
Running time distributions
Betting system
Issue DateJun-1992
PublisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.
Citation
Research Report, n. 18, p. 1-14 How to Cite?
AbstractHausch, Ziemba & Rubinstein (1981) developed a betting system (the Dr. Z system) that empirically demonstrated positive profits in two racetracks. The Dr. Z system assumes running times are distributed exponentially but the use of other distributions for running times (Henery (1981) and Stern (1990)) produces a better fit in some racetracks although the better fit is at the cost of severely increased complexity in computing ordering probabilities. Lo & Bacon-Shone (1992) proposed a simple model of computing ordering probabilities which is a good approximation to those based on the Henery model and the Stern model. In this paper. we add this model to the Dr. Z system and use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which is a good approximation to those based on the Henery model. With data sets in the U.S. and Hong Kong, we show improved profit over the Dr. Z system at lower levels of risk. With the special return formula in Japan. our model does not have a big difference in profits from the Dr. Z system.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60980

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLo, VSY-
dc.contributor.authorBacon-Shone, J-
dc.contributor.authorBusche, K-
dc.date.accessioned2010-06-02T04:26:20Z-
dc.date.available2010-06-02T04:26:20Z-
dc.date.issued1992-06-
dc.identifier.citationResearch Report, n. 18, p. 1-14en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60980-
dc.description.abstractHausch, Ziemba & Rubinstein (1981) developed a betting system (the Dr. Z system) that empirically demonstrated positive profits in two racetracks. The Dr. Z system assumes running times are distributed exponentially but the use of other distributions for running times (Henery (1981) and Stern (1990)) produces a better fit in some racetracks although the better fit is at the cost of severely increased complexity in computing ordering probabilities. Lo & Bacon-Shone (1992) proposed a simple model of computing ordering probabilities which is a good approximation to those based on the Henery model and the Stern model. In this paper. we add this model to the Dr. Z system and use a simple way of computing ordering probabilities which is a good approximation to those based on the Henery model. With data sets in the U.S. and Hong Kong, we show improved profit over the Dr. Z system at lower levels of risk. With the special return formula in Japan. our model does not have a big difference in profits from the Dr. Z system.en_HK
dc.language.isoengen_HK
dc.publisherUniversity of Hong Kong. Dept. of Statistics.en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofResearch Report-
dc.rightsAuthor holds the copyright-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectRacetrack bettingen_HK
dc.subjectRunning time distributionsen_HK
dc.subjectBetting systemen_HK
dc.titleA modified racetrack betting systemen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.description.naturepostprint-

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