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Article: A test for constant fatality rate of an emerging epidemic: With applications to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong and Beijing

TitleA test for constant fatality rate of an emerging epidemic: With applications to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong and Beijing
Authors
KeywordsBrownian motion
Infectious disease
Real-time fatality rate
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Zero-mean martingale
Issue Date2008
PublisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/BIOM
Citation
Biometrics, 2008, v. 64 n. 3, p. 869-876 How to Cite?
AbstractThe etiology, pathogenesis, and prognosis for a newly emerging disease are generally unknown to clinicians. Effective interventions and treatments at the earliest possible times are warranted to suppress the fatality of the disease to a minimum, and inappropriate treatments should be abolished. In this situation, the ability to extract most information out of the data available is critical so that important decisions can be made. Ineffectiveness of the treatment can be reflected by a constant fatality over time while effective treatment normally leads to a decreasing fatality rate. A statistical test for constant fatality over time is proposed in this article. The proposed statistic is shown to converge to a Brownian motion asymptotically under the null hypothesis. With the special features of the Brownian motion, we are able to analyze the first passage time distribution based on a sequential tests approach. This allows the null hypothesis of constant fatality rate to be rejected at the earliest possible time when adequate statistical evidence accumulates. Simulation studies show that the performance of the proposed test is good and it is extremely sensitive in picking up decreasing fatality rate. The proposed test is applied to the severe acute respiratory syndrome data in Hong Kong and Beijing. © 2008, The International Biometric Society.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60260
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.36
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.906
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLam, KFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorDeshpande, JVen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorNaikNimbalkar, UVen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSFen_HK
dc.contributor.authorXu, Yen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-31T04:07:04Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-31T04:07:04Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationBiometrics, 2008, v. 64 n. 3, p. 869-876en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0006-341Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60260-
dc.description.abstractThe etiology, pathogenesis, and prognosis for a newly emerging disease are generally unknown to clinicians. Effective interventions and treatments at the earliest possible times are warranted to suppress the fatality of the disease to a minimum, and inappropriate treatments should be abolished. In this situation, the ability to extract most information out of the data available is critical so that important decisions can be made. Ineffectiveness of the treatment can be reflected by a constant fatality over time while effective treatment normally leads to a decreasing fatality rate. A statistical test for constant fatality over time is proposed in this article. The proposed statistic is shown to converge to a Brownian motion asymptotically under the null hypothesis. With the special features of the Brownian motion, we are able to analyze the first passage time distribution based on a sequential tests approach. This allows the null hypothesis of constant fatality rate to be rejected at the earliest possible time when adequate statistical evidence accumulates. Simulation studies show that the performance of the proposed test is good and it is extremely sensitive in picking up decreasing fatality rate. The proposed test is applied to the severe acute respiratory syndrome data in Hong Kong and Beijing. © 2008, The International Biometric Society.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/BIOMen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofBiometricsen_HK
dc.rightsBiometrics. Copyright © Blackwell Publishing Ltd.en_HK
dc.subjectBrownian motionen_HK
dc.subjectInfectious diseaseen_HK
dc.subjectReal-time fatality rateen_HK
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndromeen_HK
dc.subjectZero-mean martingaleen_HK
dc.subject.meshBiometry - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshChina - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshEnvironmental Monitoring - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - mortalityen_HK
dc.titleA test for constant fatality rate of an emerging epidemic: With applications to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong and Beijingen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0006-341X&volume=64&spage=869&epage=876&date=2008&atitle=A+test+for+constant+fatality+rate+of+an+emerging+epidemic:+with+applications+to+severe+acute+respiratory+syndrome+in+Hong+Kong+and+Beijingen_HK
dc.identifier.emailLam, KF: hrntlkf@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLam, KF=rp00718en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00935.xen_HK
dc.identifier.pmid18047531-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-49749084808en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros149363en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-49749084808&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume64en_HK
dc.identifier.issue3en_HK
dc.identifier.spage869en_HK
dc.identifier.epage876en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1541-0420-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000258470600023-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, KF=8948421200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDeshpande, JV=7005605097en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EHY=7103086074en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNaikNimbalkar, UV=6505950143en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridXu, Y=7406448808en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike3135193-

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