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Article: Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

TitleClimate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States
Authors
KeywordsClimate change
Renewable energy
Statistical downscaling
Wind power
Issue Date2008
PublisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
Citation
Renewable Energy, 2008, v. 33 n. 11, p. 2393-2406 How to Cite?
AbstractUsing statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60254
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.404
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.961
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSailor, DJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorHart, Men_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-31T04:06:50Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-31T04:06:50Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationRenewable Energy, 2008, v. 33 n. 11, p. 2393-2406en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0960-1481en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/60254-
dc.description.abstractUsing statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/reneneen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofRenewable Energyen_HK
dc.subjectClimate changeen_HK
dc.subjectRenewable energyen_HK
dc.subjectStatistical downscalingen_HK
dc.subjectWind poweren_HK
dc.titleClimate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United Statesen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0960-1481&volume=33&spage=2393&epage=2406&date=2008&atitle=Climate+change+implications+for+wind+power+resources+in+the+Northwest+United+Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.emailHart, M:mhart@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityHart, M=rp00645en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.renene.2008.01.007en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-46449127501en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros156219en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-46449127501&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume33en_HK
dc.identifier.issue11en_HK
dc.identifier.spage2393en_HK
dc.identifier.epage2406en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000258204600006-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSailor, DJ=7003306487en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSmith, M=54379647100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHart, M=15044213100en_HK

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