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Article: Age-period-cohort analysis of tuberculosis notifications in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2005

TitleAge-period-cohort analysis of tuberculosis notifications in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2005
Authors
Issue Date2008
PublisherBMJ Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://thorax.bmjjournals.com/
Citation
Thorax, 2008, v. 63 n. 4, p. 312-316 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Despite its wealth, excellent vital indices and robust health care infrastructure, Hong Kong has a relatively high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) (85.4 per 100 000). Hong Kong residents have also experienced a very rapid and recent epidemiological transition; the population largely originated from migration by southern Chinese in the mid 20th century. Given the potentially long latency period of TB infection, an investigation was undertaken to determine the extent to which TB incidence rates reflect the population history and the impact of public health interventions. Methods: An age-period-cohort model was used to break down the Hong Kong TB notification rates from 1961 to 2005 into the effects of age, calendar period and birth cohort. Results: Analysis by age showed a consistent pattern across all the cohorts by year of birth, with a peak in the relative risk of TB at 20-24 years of age. Analysis by year of birth showed an increase in the relative risk of TB from 1880 to 1900, stable risk until 1910, then a linear rate of decline from 1910 with an inflection point at 1990 for a steeper rate of decline. Period effects yielded only one inflection during the calendar years 1971-5. Conclusions: Economic development, social change and the World Health Organisation's short-course directly observed therapy (DOTS) strategy have contributed to TB control in Hong Kong. The linear cohort effect until 1990 suggests that a relatively high, but slowly falling, incidence of TB in Hong Kong will continue into the next few decades.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/57366
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 8.121
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.650
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWu, Pen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSchooling, CMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWong, IOLen_HK
dc.contributor.authorJohnston, JMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, CCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTam, CMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-12T01:34:24Z-
dc.date.available2010-04-12T01:34:24Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationThorax, 2008, v. 63 n. 4, p. 312-316en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0040-6376en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/57366-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Despite its wealth, excellent vital indices and robust health care infrastructure, Hong Kong has a relatively high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) (85.4 per 100 000). Hong Kong residents have also experienced a very rapid and recent epidemiological transition; the population largely originated from migration by southern Chinese in the mid 20th century. Given the potentially long latency period of TB infection, an investigation was undertaken to determine the extent to which TB incidence rates reflect the population history and the impact of public health interventions. Methods: An age-period-cohort model was used to break down the Hong Kong TB notification rates from 1961 to 2005 into the effects of age, calendar period and birth cohort. Results: Analysis by age showed a consistent pattern across all the cohorts by year of birth, with a peak in the relative risk of TB at 20-24 years of age. Analysis by year of birth showed an increase in the relative risk of TB from 1880 to 1900, stable risk until 1910, then a linear rate of decline from 1910 with an inflection point at 1990 for a steeper rate of decline. Period effects yielded only one inflection during the calendar years 1971-5. Conclusions: Economic development, social change and the World Health Organisation's short-course directly observed therapy (DOTS) strategy have contributed to TB control in Hong Kong. The linear cohort effect until 1990 suggests that a relatively high, but slowly falling, incidence of TB in Hong Kong will continue into the next few decades.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://thorax.bmjjournals.com/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofThoraxen_HK
dc.rightsThorax. Copyright © B M J Publishing Group.en_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subject.meshTuberculosis - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshAdolescenten_HK
dc.subject.meshAdulten_HK
dc.subject.meshAge Distributionen_HK
dc.subject.meshAgeden_HK
dc.titleAge-period-cohort analysis of tuberculosis notifications in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2005en_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0040-6376&volume=63&issue=4&spage=312&epage=316&date=2008&atitle=Age-period-cohort+analysis+of+tuberculosis+notifications+in+Hong+Kong+from+1961+to+2005en_HK
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailSchooling, CM: cms1@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailWong, IOL: iolwong@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailJohnston, JM: jjohnsto@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_HK
dc.identifier.authoritySchooling, CM=rp00504en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityWong, IOL=rp01806en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityJohnston, JM=rp00375en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_HK
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/thx.2007.082354en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid18024541-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-41849110571en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros141402-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-41849110571&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume63en_HK
dc.identifier.issue4en_HK
dc.identifier.spage312en_HK
dc.identifier.epage316en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1468-3296-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000254289500006-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWu, P=7403119301en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSchooling, CM=12808565000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, IOL=7102513940en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridJohnston, JM=7403397964en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, CC=7402612644en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTam, CM=7201442997en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, GM=7007159841en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike9971081-

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