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Article: Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

TitleStrategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
Authors
Issue Date2005
PublisherNature Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.nature.com/nature
Citation
Nature, 2005, v. 437 n. 7056, p. 209-214 How to Cite?
AbstractHighly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed. © 2005 Nature Publishing Group.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/54275
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 38.138
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 21.936
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCummings, DATen_HK
dc.contributor.authorCauchemez, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFraser, Cen_HK
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMeeyai, Aen_HK
dc.contributor.authorIamsirithaworn, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorBurke, DSen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2009-04-03T07:41:51Z-
dc.date.available2009-04-03T07:41:51Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_HK
dc.identifier.citationNature, 2005, v. 437 n. 7056, p. 209-214en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/54275-
dc.description.abstractHighly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed. © 2005 Nature Publishing Group.en_HK
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.nature.com/natureen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofNatureen_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subject.meshAntiviral Agents - administration & dosage - pharmacology - supply & distribution/therapeutic useen_HK
dc.subject.meshAsia, Southeastern - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Disease Control - methods - standardsen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A virus - classification - genetics - pathogenicity - physiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Biologicalen_HK
dc.titleStrategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asiaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0028-0836&volume=437&issue=7056&spage=209&epage=214&date=2005&atitle=Strategies+for+containing+an+emerging+influenza+pandemic+in+Southeast+Asiaen_HK
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S:sriley@hkucc.hku.hk, steven.riley@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_HK
dc.description.naturepostprinten_HK
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/nature04017en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid16079797-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-23844436610en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros110043-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-23844436610&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume437en_HK
dc.identifier.issue7056en_HK
dc.identifier.spage209en_HK
dc.identifier.epage214en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000231696900046-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFerguson, NM=7103246319en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCummings, DAT=9842706300en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCauchemez, S=11940936200en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFraser, C=35460815100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMeeyai, A=8558026800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridIamsirithaworn, S=8937073300en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBurke, DS=7403247471en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike272376-

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