Probability and Statistical models for racing

Abstract

Racing data provides a rich source of analysis for quantitative researchers to study multi-entry competitions. This paper first explores statistical modeling to investigate the favorite-longshot betting bias using world-wide horse race data. The result shows that the bias phenomenon is not universal. Economic interpretation using utility theory will also be provided. Additionally, previous literature have proposed various probability distributions to model racing running time in order to estimate higher order probabilities such as probabilities of finishing second and third. We extend the normal distribution assumption to include certain correlation and variance structure and apply the extended model to actual data. While horse race data is used in this paper, the methodologies can be applied to other types of racing data such as cars and dogs.