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Article: Probability and Statistical models for racing

TitleProbability and Statistical models for racing
Authors
KeywordsFavorite-longshot bias
Ordering probability
Running time distribution
Horse race
Issue Date2008
PublisherThe Berkeley Electronic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.bepress.com/jqas/
Citation
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, v. 4 no. 2, Article 11 How to Cite?
AbstractRacing data provides a rich source of analysis for quantitative researchers to study multi-entry competitions. This paper first explores statistical modeling to investigate the favorite-longshot betting bias using world-wide horse race data. The result shows that the bias phenomenon is not universal. Economic interpretation using utility theory will also be provided. Additionally, previous literature have proposed various probability distributions to model racing running time in order to estimate higher order probabilities such as probabilities of finishing second and third. We extend the normal distribution assumption to include certain correlation and variance structure and apply the extended model to actual data. While horse race data is used in this paper, the methodologies can be applied to other types of racing data such as cars and dogs.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/53182
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.288

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLo, VS-
dc.contributor.authorBacon-Shone, J-
dc.date.accessioned2009-03-11T00:53:01Z-
dc.date.available2009-03-11T00:53:01Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, v. 4 no. 2, Article 11en
dc.identifier.issn1559-0410-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/53182-
dc.description.abstractRacing data provides a rich source of analysis for quantitative researchers to study multi-entry competitions. This paper first explores statistical modeling to investigate the favorite-longshot betting bias using world-wide horse race data. The result shows that the bias phenomenon is not universal. Economic interpretation using utility theory will also be provided. Additionally, previous literature have proposed various probability distributions to model racing running time in order to estimate higher order probabilities such as probabilities of finishing second and third. We extend the normal distribution assumption to include certain correlation and variance structure and apply the extended model to actual data. While horse race data is used in this paper, the methodologies can be applied to other types of racing data such as cars and dogs.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherThe Berkeley Electronic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.bepress.com/jqas/en
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports-
dc.rightsJournal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Copyright © Berkeley Electronic Press.en
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectFavorite-longshot biasen
dc.subjectOrdering probabilityen
dc.subjectRunning time distributionen
dc.subjectHorse raceen
dc.titleProbability and Statistical models for racingen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_HK

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