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Article: The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting

TitleThe evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting
Authors
Gregory, AWYetman, JA
KeywordsBusiness and economics
Economic situation and conditions business and economics
Issue Date2004
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Citation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, v. 20 n. 3, p. 461-473 How to Cite?
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00064-5
AbstractWhen professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analysed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/48697
ISSN
0169-2070
2023 Impact Factor: 6.9
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.691
ISI Accession Number ID
WOS:000223449400008

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorGregory, AWen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYetman, JAen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2008-05-22T04:21:47Z-
dc.date.available2008-05-22T04:21:47Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal of Forecasting, 2004, v. 20 n. 3, p. 461-473en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0169-2070en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/48697-
dc.description.abstractWhen professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analysed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.en_HK
dc.format.extent140768 bytes-
dc.format.extent234412 bytes-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.languagefreen_HK
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecasten_HK
dc.rightsInternational Journal of Forecasting. Copyright © Elsevier BV.en_HK
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectBusiness and economicsen_HK
dc.subjectEconomic situation and conditions business and economicsen_HK
dc.titleThe evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecastingen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0169-2070&volume=20&issue=3&spage=461&epage=473&date=2004&atitle=The+evolution+of+consensus+in+macroeconomic+forecasting+en_HK
dc.identifier.emailYetman, JA: jyetman@econ.hku.hken_HK
dc.description.naturepostprinten_HK
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00064-5en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-4344683662-
dc.identifier.hkuros103697-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000223449400008-
dc.identifier.issnl0169-2070-

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