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Conference Paper: Evaluation of generation expansion investment under competitive market environment

TitleEvaluation of generation expansion investment under competitive market environment
Authors
KeywordsBidding
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
Generation Planning
Probabilistic Production Costing
Risk Assessment
Issue Date2005
PublisherIEEE.
Citation
IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, San Francisco, California, USA, 12-16 June 2005, v. 3, p. 2136-2140 How to Cite?
AbstractThis paper proposes a new approach of generation expansion planning and its risk assessment under the competitive market environment. Different from the traditional probabilistic production costing (PPC) method under monopoly environment which is based on the deterministic generator loading priority list, the uncertainties of biddings for long-term contracts in electricity market are introduced into the new model. Based on the probability distribution of the surplus on bidding price over marginal cost, the distribution of expected generated energy for a given period can be achieved to calculate the profit of a generator. In order to manage the risks of the investment on generation expansion project, a risk assessment tool called Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used. It gives the investors an intuitionistic criterion for making investment decision. A numerical example is given in this paper to valid the method. ©2005 IEEE.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/45768
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSu, Jen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWu, FFen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2007-10-30T06:35:02Z-
dc.date.available2007-10-30T06:35:02Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_HK
dc.identifier.citationIEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, San Francisco, California, USA, 12-16 June 2005, v. 3, p. 2136-2140en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/45768-
dc.description.abstractThis paper proposes a new approach of generation expansion planning and its risk assessment under the competitive market environment. Different from the traditional probabilistic production costing (PPC) method under monopoly environment which is based on the deterministic generator loading priority list, the uncertainties of biddings for long-term contracts in electricity market are introduced into the new model. Based on the probability distribution of the surplus on bidding price over marginal cost, the distribution of expected generated energy for a given period can be achieved to calculate the profit of a generator. In order to manage the risks of the investment on generation expansion project, a risk assessment tool called Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used. It gives the investors an intuitionistic criterion for making investment decision. A numerical example is given in this paper to valid the method. ©2005 IEEE.en_HK
dc.format.extent593745 bytes-
dc.format.extent12538 bytes-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.format.mimetypetext/plain-
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherIEEE.en_HK
dc.relation.ispartof2005 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meetingen_HK
dc.rights©2005 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.en_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectBiddingen_HK
dc.subjectConditional Value at Risk (CVaR)en_HK
dc.subjectGeneration Planningen_HK
dc.subjectProbabilistic Production Costingen_HK
dc.subjectRisk Assessmenten_HK
dc.titleEvaluation of generation expansion investment under competitive market environmenten_HK
dc.typeConference_Paperen_HK
dc.identifier.emailWu, FF: ffwu@eee.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityWu, FF=rp00194en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_HK
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/PES.2005.1489331en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-27144450953en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros101738-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-27144450953&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume3en_HK
dc.identifier.spage2136en_HK
dc.identifier.epage2140en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSu, J=55177552000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWu, FF=7403465107en_HK

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