Impact of alcohol taxes on violence in Hong Kong: a population-based interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

<p> Background: Interpersonal violence is a major public health concern with alcohol use a known risk factor. Despite alcohol taxation being an effective policy to reduce consumption; Hong Kong, contrary to most developed economies, embarked on an alcohol tax reduction and elimination policy. Methods: To assess the impact of the alcohol tax reductions, we analysed population-based hospitalisation data for assault from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, and violent and sexual crimes recorded by the Hong Kong Police Force (2004-2018). We conducted an interrupted time series using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models on monthly rates. Breakpoints in March 2007 and March 2008 were applied separately. Results: The 2007 tax cut was associated with sustained increases in violence-related hospitalisation rates for 35-49 age group (female: 0.19%, p=0.007; male: 0.22%, p<0.001; overall: 0.16%, p=0.007); and an immediate increase of 51.3% (p=0.005) in the rate of sexual crimes reported. Results for the 35-49 age group after the 2008 tax cut were similar with sustained increases in hospitalisation rates (female: 0.21%, p=0.010; male: 0.23%, p<0.001; overall: 0.17%, p<0.001). The 2008 tax cut was also associated with immediate increases in hospitalisation rates in children (female: 33.1%, p=0.011; male: 49.2%, p[removed] <br></p>