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- Publisher Website: 10.3201/eid2611.201074
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85093900447
- PMID: 32917290
- WOS: WOS:000746993900001
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Article: Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19
Title | Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19 |
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Authors | |
Keywords | 2019 novel coronavirus disease coronavirus COVID-19 epidemiological parameters mathematical modeling |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Publisher | US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm |
Citation | Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020, v. 26 n. 11, p. e1-e14 How to Cite? |
Abstract | We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available. |
Description | For the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/290485 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 7.2 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.117 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Biggerstaff, M | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cowling, BJ | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cucunubá, ZM | - |
dc.contributor.author | Dinh, L | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ferguson, NM | - |
dc.contributor.author | Gao, H | - |
dc.contributor.author | Hill, V | - |
dc.contributor.author | Imai, N | - |
dc.contributor.author | Johansson, MA | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kada, S | - |
dc.contributor.author | Morgan, O | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pastore y Piontti, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Polonsky, JA | - |
dc.contributor.author | Prasad, PV | - |
dc.contributor.author | Quandelacy, TM | - |
dc.contributor.author | Rambaut, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tappero, JW | - |
dc.contributor.author | Vandemaele, KA | - |
dc.contributor.author | Vespignani, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Warmbrod, KL | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, JY | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-11-02T05:42:54Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-11-02T05:42:54Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020, v. 26 n. 11, p. e1-e14 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1080-6040 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/290485 | - |
dc.description | For the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group | - |
dc.description.abstract | We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Emerging Infectious Diseases | - |
dc.subject | 2019 novel coronavirus disease | - |
dc.subject | coronavirus | - |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | - |
dc.subject | epidemiological parameters | - |
dc.subject | mathematical modeling | - |
dc.title | Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19 | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Cowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wong, JY: wongytj@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Cowling, BJ=rp01326 | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_OA_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3201/eid2611.201074 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 32917290 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC7588530 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85093900447 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 318579 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 26 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 11 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | e1 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | e14 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000746993900001 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1080-6040 | - |