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Article: Towards activity-based exposure measures in spatial analysis of pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes

TitleTowards activity-based exposure measures in spatial analysis of pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes
Authors
KeywordsPedestrian safety
Crash frequency
Activity-based exposure measures
Spatial correlation
Spatial heterogeneity
Issue Date2020
PublisherElsevier Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/336/description#description
Citation
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2020, v. 148, p. article no. 105777 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Although numerous efforts have been devoted to exploring the effects of area-wide factors on the frequency of pedestrian crashes in neighborhoods over the past two decades, existing studies have largely failed to provide a full picture of the factors that contribute to the incidence of zonal pedestrian crashes, due to the unavailability of reliable exposure data and use of less sound analytical methods. Methods: Based on a crowdsourced dataset in Hong Kong, we first proposed a procedure to extract pedestrian trajectories from travel-diary survey data. We then aggregated these data to 209 neighborhoods and developed a Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model to investigate the spatially non-stationary relationships between the number of pedestrian–motor vehicle (PMV) crashes and related risk factors. To dissect the role of pedestrian exposure, the estimated coefficients of models with population, walking trips, walking time, and walking distance as the measure of pedestrian exposure were presented and compared. Results: Our results indicated substantial inconsistencies in the effects of several risk factors between the models of population and activity-based exposure measures. The model using walking trips as the measure of pedestrian exposure had the best goodness-of-fit. We also provided new insights that in addition to the unstructured variability, heterogeneity in the effects of explanatory variables on the frequency of PMV crashes could also arise from the spatially correlated effects. After adjusting for vehicle volume and pedestrian activity, road density, intersection density, bus stop density, and the number of parking lots were found to be positively associated with PMV crash frequency, whereas the percentage of motorways and median monthly income had negative associations with the risk of PMV crashes. Conclusions: The use of population or population density as a surrogate for pedestrian exposure when modeling the frequency of zonal pedestrian crashes is expected to produce biased estimations and invalid inferences. Spatial heterogeneity should also not be negligible when modeling pedestrian crashes involving contiguous spatial units.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/290136
ISSN
2019 Impact Factor: 3.655
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.109

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorDong, N-
dc.contributor.authorMeng, F-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, J-
dc.contributor.authorWong, SC-
dc.contributor.authorXU, P-
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-22T08:22:35Z-
dc.date.available2020-10-22T08:22:35Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationAccident Analysis & Prevention, 2020, v. 148, p. article no. 105777-
dc.identifier.issn0001-4575-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/290136-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Although numerous efforts have been devoted to exploring the effects of area-wide factors on the frequency of pedestrian crashes in neighborhoods over the past two decades, existing studies have largely failed to provide a full picture of the factors that contribute to the incidence of zonal pedestrian crashes, due to the unavailability of reliable exposure data and use of less sound analytical methods. Methods: Based on a crowdsourced dataset in Hong Kong, we first proposed a procedure to extract pedestrian trajectories from travel-diary survey data. We then aggregated these data to 209 neighborhoods and developed a Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model to investigate the spatially non-stationary relationships between the number of pedestrian–motor vehicle (PMV) crashes and related risk factors. To dissect the role of pedestrian exposure, the estimated coefficients of models with population, walking trips, walking time, and walking distance as the measure of pedestrian exposure were presented and compared. Results: Our results indicated substantial inconsistencies in the effects of several risk factors between the models of population and activity-based exposure measures. The model using walking trips as the measure of pedestrian exposure had the best goodness-of-fit. We also provided new insights that in addition to the unstructured variability, heterogeneity in the effects of explanatory variables on the frequency of PMV crashes could also arise from the spatially correlated effects. After adjusting for vehicle volume and pedestrian activity, road density, intersection density, bus stop density, and the number of parking lots were found to be positively associated with PMV crash frequency, whereas the percentage of motorways and median monthly income had negative associations with the risk of PMV crashes. Conclusions: The use of population or population density as a surrogate for pedestrian exposure when modeling the frequency of zonal pedestrian crashes is expected to produce biased estimations and invalid inferences. Spatial heterogeneity should also not be negligible when modeling pedestrian crashes involving contiguous spatial units.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/336/description#description-
dc.relation.ispartofAccident Analysis & Prevention-
dc.subjectPedestrian safety-
dc.subjectCrash frequency-
dc.subjectActivity-based exposure measures-
dc.subjectSpatial correlation-
dc.subjectSpatial heterogeneity-
dc.titleTowards activity-based exposure measures in spatial analysis of pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailWong, SC: hhecwsc@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityWong, SC=rp00191-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.aap.2020.105777-
dc.identifier.pmid33011425-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85091803787-
dc.identifier.hkuros316550-
dc.identifier.volume148-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 105777-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 105777-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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