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Article: Increased infection severity in downstream cities in infectious disease transmission and tourists surveillance analysis

TitleIncreased infection severity in downstream cities in infectious disease transmission and tourists surveillance analysis
Authors
KeywordsInfectious disease transmission
Travel pattern
SIR model
Human mobility
Severity increase percentage
Issue Date2019
PublisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yjtbi
Citation
Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2019, v. 470, p. 20-29 How to Cite?
AbstractInfectious disease severely threatens human life. Human mobility and travel patterns influence the spread of infection between cities and countries. We find that the infection severity in downstream cities during outbreaks is related to transmission rate, recovery rate, travel rate, travel duration and the average number of person-to-person contacts per day. The peak value of the infected population in downstream cities is slightly higher than that in source cities. However, as the number of cities increases, the severity increase percentage during outbreaks between end and source cities is constant. The surveillance of important nodes connecting cities, such as airports and train stations, can help delay the occurrence time of infection outbreaks. The city-entry surveillance of hub cities is not only useful to these cities, but also to cities that are strongly connected (i.e., have a high travel rate) to them. The city-exit surveillance of hub cities contributes to other downstream cities, but only slightly to itself. Surveillance conducted in hub cities is highly efficient in controlling infection transmission. Only strengthening the individual immunity of frequent travellers is not efficient for infection control. However, reducing the number of person-to-person contacts per day effectively limits the spread of infection.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/272223
ISSN
2017 Impact Factor: 1.833
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.089

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZhang, N-
dc.contributor.authorZhao, P-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Y-
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-20T10:38:05Z-
dc.date.available2019-07-20T10:38:05Z-
dc.date.issued2019-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Theoretical Biology, 2019, v. 470, p. 20-29-
dc.identifier.issn0022-5193-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/272223-
dc.description.abstractInfectious disease severely threatens human life. Human mobility and travel patterns influence the spread of infection between cities and countries. We find that the infection severity in downstream cities during outbreaks is related to transmission rate, recovery rate, travel rate, travel duration and the average number of person-to-person contacts per day. The peak value of the infected population in downstream cities is slightly higher than that in source cities. However, as the number of cities increases, the severity increase percentage during outbreaks between end and source cities is constant. The surveillance of important nodes connecting cities, such as airports and train stations, can help delay the occurrence time of infection outbreaks. The city-entry surveillance of hub cities is not only useful to these cities, but also to cities that are strongly connected (i.e., have a high travel rate) to them. The city-exit surveillance of hub cities contributes to other downstream cities, but only slightly to itself. Surveillance conducted in hub cities is highly efficient in controlling infection transmission. Only strengthening the individual immunity of frequent travellers is not efficient for infection control. However, reducing the number of person-to-person contacts per day effectively limits the spread of infection.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yjtbi-
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Theoretical Biology-
dc.subjectInfectious disease transmission-
dc.subjectTravel pattern-
dc.subjectSIR model-
dc.subjectHuman mobility-
dc.subjectSeverity increase percentage-
dc.titleIncreased infection severity in downstream cities in infectious disease transmission and tourists surveillance analysis-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailZhang, N: zhangnan@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailZhao, P: zhaopc@HKUCC-COM.hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLi, Y: liyg@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityLi, Y=rp00151-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.03.004-
dc.identifier.pmid30851275-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85062880140-
dc.identifier.hkuros298818-
dc.identifier.volume470-
dc.identifier.spage20-
dc.identifier.epage29-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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