Projection of extreme temperatures in Hong Kong in the 21st century

Abstract

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme temperature events in Hong Kong in the 21st century were investigated by statistically downscaling 26 sets of the daily global climate model projections (a combination of 11 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The models' performance in simulating the past climate during 1971-2000 has also been verified and discussed. The verification revealed that the models in general have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme temperature events. Moreover, the models are more skillful in simulating the past climate of the hot nights and cold days than that of the very hot days. The projection results suggested that, in the 21st century, the frequency of occurrence of extremely high temperature events in Hong Kong would increase significantly while that of the extremely low temperature events is expected to drop significantly. Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean, the average annual numbers of very hot days and hot nights in Hong Kong are expected to increase significantly from 9 days and 16 nights in 1980-1999 to 89 days and 137 nights respectively in 2090-2099. On the other hand, the average annual number of cold days will drop from 17 days in 1980-1999 to about 1 day in 2090-2099. About 65 percent of the model-scenario combinations indicate that there will be on average less than one cold day in 2090-2099. While all the model-emission scenarios in general have projected consistent trends in the change of temperature extremes in the 21st century, there is a large divergence in the projections between different model/emission scenarios. This reflects that there are still large uncertainties in the model simulation of the future climate of extreme temperature events. © The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.