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Article: Technical trading: Is it still beating the foreign exchange market?

TitleTechnical trading: Is it still beating the foreign exchange market?
Authors
Issue Date2016
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jie
Citation
Journal of International Economics, 2016, v. 102, p. 188-208 How to Cite?
AbstractWe carry out a large-scale investigation of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market, using daily data over 45 years for 30 developed and emerging market currencies. Employing a stepwise test to counter data-snooping bias and examining over 21,000 technical rules, we find evidence of substantial predictability and excess profitability in both developed and emerging currencies, measured against a variety of performance metrics. We cross-validate our results using out-of-sample analysis. We find time series and cross-sectional variation in subperiods and cultural and/or geographic groups, respectively, suggesting that temporarily not-fully-rational behavior and market immaturity generate technical predictability and potential excess profitability.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/229640
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.017
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.723
SSRN

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHsu, PH-
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, MP-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Z-
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-23T14:12:22Z-
dc.date.available2016-08-23T14:12:22Z-
dc.date.issued2016-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of International Economics, 2016, v. 102, p. 188-208-
dc.identifier.issn0022-1996-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/229640-
dc.description.abstractWe carry out a large-scale investigation of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market, using daily data over 45 years for 30 developed and emerging market currencies. Employing a stepwise test to counter data-snooping bias and examining over 21,000 technical rules, we find evidence of substantial predictability and excess profitability in both developed and emerging currencies, measured against a variety of performance metrics. We cross-validate our results using out-of-sample analysis. We find time series and cross-sectional variation in subperiods and cultural and/or geographic groups, respectively, suggesting that temporarily not-fully-rational behavior and market immaturity generate technical predictability and potential excess profitability.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jie-
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of International Economics-
dc.titleTechnical trading: Is it still beating the foreign exchange market?-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailHsu, PH: paulhsu@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailWang, Z: wangzg@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityHsu, PH=rp01553-
dc.identifier.authorityWang, Z=rp02039-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.03.012-
dc.identifier.hkuros259912-
dc.identifier.hkuros270281-
dc.identifier.volume102-
dc.identifier.spage188-
dc.identifier.epage208-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands-
dc.identifier.ssrn2765673-

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