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Article: Stock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections

TitleStock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections
Authors
KeywordsMarket Return
Economic Performance
GDP Growth
Unemployment
PublisherWestern Academic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.wapress.com/JBERMain.htm
Citation
Journal of Business & Economics Research, , v. 12 n. 2, p. 159-170 How to Cite?
AbstractUsing stock market and economic data from 1900 to 2008 from 27 separate presidential administrations in the United States (U.S.), including 15 Republican and 12 Democratic, this paper examines the relationships between the market return after each Election Day and economic performance during the presidential term. Using the theoretical framework of political economy, the authors examine how Wall Street’s reaction to a presidential election acts as a predictive measure of future economic performance. The analysis shows that the after-election market movement has progressively been more accurate in predicting the future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth but not the future unemployment rates. Given that the results show a higher correlation over time, the model appears to provide a good starting point for judging the economic potential of future presidential administrations.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/222295
ISSN

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChien, WW-
dc.contributor.authorMayer, R-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Z-
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-11T08:36:40Z-
dc.date.available2016-01-11T08:36:40Z-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Business & Economics Research, , v. 12 n. 2, p. 159-170-
dc.identifier.issn1542-4448-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/222295-
dc.description.abstractUsing stock market and economic data from 1900 to 2008 from 27 separate presidential administrations in the United States (U.S.), including 15 Republican and 12 Democratic, this paper examines the relationships between the market return after each Election Day and economic performance during the presidential term. Using the theoretical framework of political economy, the authors examine how Wall Street’s reaction to a presidential election acts as a predictive measure of future economic performance. The analysis shows that the after-election market movement has progressively been more accurate in predicting the future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth but not the future unemployment rates. Given that the results show a higher correlation over time, the model appears to provide a good starting point for judging the economic potential of future presidential administrations.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherWestern Academic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.wapress.com/JBERMain.htm-
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Business & Economics Research-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectMarket Return-
dc.subjectEconomic Performance-
dc.subjectGDP Growth-
dc.subjectUnemployment-
dc.titleStock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailWang, Z: wangzg@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityWang, Z=rp02039-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.volume12-
dc.identifier.issue2-
dc.identifier.spage159-
dc.identifier.epage170-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

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