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Article: Stock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections
Title | Stock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections |
---|---|
Authors | |
Keywords | Market Return Economic Performance GDP Growth Unemployment |
Publisher | Western Academic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.wapress.com/JBERMain.htm |
Citation | Journal of Business & Economics Research, , v. 12 n. 2, p. 159-170 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Using stock market and economic data from 1900 to 2008 from 27 separate presidential
administrations in the United States (U.S.), including 15 Republican and 12 Democratic, this paper
examines the relationships between the market return after each Election Day and economic
performance during the presidential term. Using the theoretical framework of political economy,
the authors examine how Wall Street’s reaction to a presidential election acts as a predictive
measure of future economic performance. The analysis shows that the after-election market
movement has progressively been more accurate in predicting the future Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth but not the future unemployment rates. Given that the results show a higher
correlation over time, the model appears to provide a good starting point for judging the economic
potential of future presidential administrations. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/222295 |
ISSN |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Chien, WW | - |
dc.contributor.author | Mayer, R | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, Z | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-01-11T08:36:40Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2016-01-11T08:36:40Z | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal of Business & Economics Research, , v. 12 n. 2, p. 159-170 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1542-4448 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/222295 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Using stock market and economic data from 1900 to 2008 from 27 separate presidential administrations in the United States (U.S.), including 15 Republican and 12 Democratic, this paper examines the relationships between the market return after each Election Day and economic performance during the presidential term. Using the theoretical framework of political economy, the authors examine how Wall Street’s reaction to a presidential election acts as a predictive measure of future economic performance. The analysis shows that the after-election market movement has progressively been more accurate in predicting the future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth but not the future unemployment rates. Given that the results show a higher correlation over time, the model appears to provide a good starting point for judging the economic potential of future presidential administrations. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Western Academic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.wapress.com/JBERMain.htm | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Business & Economics Research | - |
dc.subject | Market Return | - |
dc.subject | Economic Performance | - |
dc.subject | GDP Growth | - |
dc.subject | Unemployment | - |
dc.title | Stock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wang, Z: wangzg@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Wang, Z=rp02039 | - |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.19030/jber.v12i2.8530 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 12 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 2 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 159 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 170 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1542-4448 | - |