Validation studies of the Gail Model for breast cancer : a systematic review

Abstract

Background: The Gail Model is a statistical and risk assessment tool for women with given age and risk factors to estimate their probability that will develop invasive breast cancer. An accurate assessment of individual risk for developing breast cancer would be useful for health care providers to facilitate their risk communication with women at average risk and to make decision on taking chemoprevention for high-risk women in clinical practice. Currently, there are several validation studies of the Gail Model in western populations, however, model validity on Chinese people has not yet to be studied. Objective: To conduct a systematic review on the studies that validated the performance accuracy of the Gail model for predicting risk of developing breast cancer at population level and individual level. Methods and results: The literature search on the PubMed database and additional articles retrieved by hand searching reference lists. After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 11 studies met the criteria and finally include in the systematic review. Quality of review studies was assessed follow the STROBE checklist. The PRSMA guidelines were used to produce this review. Conclusions: The Gail model was validated in general American white women with annual screening. However, there is insufficient evidence to approve that the Gail model can be applied to Chinese women in China widely.