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Article: Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

TitleClimate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe
Authors
Issue Date2014
PublisherPLoS ONE. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
Citation
PLoS ONE, 2014, v. 9 n. 2, article no. e88155 How to Cite?
AbstractClimate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/200922
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorPei, Qen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Den_US
dc.contributor.authorLee, Fen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Gen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-21T07:07:11Z-
dc.date.available2014-08-21T07:07:11Z-
dc.date.issued2014en_US
dc.identifier.citationPLoS ONE, 2014, v. 9 n. 2, article no. e88155en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/200922-
dc.description.abstractClimate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherPLoS ONE. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.actionen_US
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONEen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleClimate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europeen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailPei, Q: peiqing@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailZhang, D: zhangd@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailLee, F: harry.lee@graduate.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailLi, G: gdli@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityZhang, D=rp00649en_US
dc.identifier.authorityLee, F=rp00646en_US
dc.identifier.authorityLi, G=rp00738en_US
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0088155en_US
dc.identifier.pmid24516601-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3917857-
dc.identifier.hkuros234788en_US
dc.identifier.volume9en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000330834400036-
dc.publisher.placeSan Francisco, CAen_US
dc.publisher.placePublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action-

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