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Article: A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan

TitleA new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan
Authors
KeywordsEarthquake magnitude probability
b value
Optimization
Taiwan
Issue Date2014
PublisherSpringer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=0921-030x
Citation
Natural Hazards, 2014, v. 71 n. 1, p. 837-850 How to Cite?
AbstractSince the year 1973, more than 54,000 M w ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude–frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire–Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake’s magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/200558
ISSN
2019 Impact Factor: 2.427
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.851
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWang, JP-
dc.contributor.authorWu, YM-
dc.contributor.authorHuang, D-
dc.contributor.authorChang, SC-
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-21T06:51:44Z-
dc.date.available2014-08-21T06:51:44Z-
dc.date.issued2014-
dc.identifier.citationNatural Hazards, 2014, v. 71 n. 1, p. 837-850-
dc.identifier.issn0921-030X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/200558-
dc.description.abstractSince the year 1973, more than 54,000 M w ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude–frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire–Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake’s magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherSpringer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=0921-030x-
dc.relation.ispartofNatural Hazards-
dc.rightsThe final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0934-1-
dc.subjectEarthquake magnitude probability-
dc.subjectb value-
dc.subjectOptimization-
dc.subjectTaiwan-
dc.titleA new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailChang, SC: suchin@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityChang, SC=rp01478-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-013-0934-1-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84893979418-
dc.identifier.hkuros232515-
dc.identifier.volume71-
dc.identifier.issue1-
dc.identifier.spage837-
dc.identifier.epage850-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000331395900039-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands-
dc.identifier.issnl0921-030X-

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