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Article: Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets.

TitleAnticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets.
Authors
Issue Date2013
Citation
PLOS One, 2013, v. 8 How to Cite?
AbstractAn ability to forecast the prevalence of specific subtypes of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in live-bird markets would facilitate greatly the implementation of preventative measures designed to minimize poultry losses and human exposure. The minimum requirement for developing predictive quantitative tools is surveillance data of AIV prevalence sampled frequently over several years. Recently, a 4-year time series of monthly sampling of hemagglutinin subtypes 1–13 in ducks, chickens and quail in live-bird markets in southern China has become available. We used these data to investigate whether a simple statistical model, based solely on historical data (variables such as the number of positive samples in host X of subtype Y time t months ago), could accurately predict prevalence of H5 and H9 subtypes in chickens. We also examined the role of ducks and quail in predicting prevalence in chickens within the market setting because between-species transmission is thought to occur within markets but has not been measured. Our best statistical models performed remarkably well at predicting future prevalence (pseudo-R2 = 0.57 for H9 and 0.49 for H5), especially considering the multi-host, multi-subtype nature of AIVs. We did not find prevalence of H5/H9 in ducks or quail to be predictors of prevalence in chickens within the Chinese markets. Our results suggest surveillance protocols that could enable more accurate and timely predictive statistical models. We also discuss which data should be collected to allow the development of mechanistic models.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/185305
PubMed Central ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorPepin, K.M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jen_US
dc.contributor.authorWebb, C.T.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHoeting, J.A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPoss, M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHudson, P.J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHong, Wen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorGuan, Yen_US
dc.date.accessioned2013-07-15T11:00:04Z-
dc.date.available2013-07-15T11:00:04Z-
dc.date.issued2013en_US
dc.identifier.citationPLOS One, 2013, v. 8en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/185305-
dc.description.abstractAn ability to forecast the prevalence of specific subtypes of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in live-bird markets would facilitate greatly the implementation of preventative measures designed to minimize poultry losses and human exposure. The minimum requirement for developing predictive quantitative tools is surveillance data of AIV prevalence sampled frequently over several years. Recently, a 4-year time series of monthly sampling of hemagglutinin subtypes 1–13 in ducks, chickens and quail in live-bird markets in southern China has become available. We used these data to investigate whether a simple statistical model, based solely on historical data (variables such as the number of positive samples in host X of subtype Y time t months ago), could accurately predict prevalence of H5 and H9 subtypes in chickens. We also examined the role of ducks and quail in predicting prevalence in chickens within the market setting because between-species transmission is thought to occur within markets but has not been measured. Our best statistical models performed remarkably well at predicting future prevalence (pseudo-R2 = 0.57 for H9 and 0.49 for H5), especially considering the multi-host, multi-subtype nature of AIVs. We did not find prevalence of H5/H9 in ducks or quail to be predictors of prevalence in chickens within the Chinese markets. Our results suggest surveillance protocols that could enable more accurate and timely predictive statistical models. We also discuss which data should be collected to allow the development of mechanistic models.-
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofPLOS Oneen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleAnticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets.en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailWang, J: wangjst@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailZhu, H: zhuhch@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailGuan, Y: yguan@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityZhu, H=rp01535en_US
dc.identifier.authorityGuan, Y=rp00397en_US
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0056157-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3567063-
dc.identifier.hkuros215167en_US
dc.identifier.volume8en_US

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