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Article: Time to extinction of bird populations

TitleTime to extinction of bird populations
Authors
KeywordsBirds
Clutch Size
Comparative Analyses
Demography
Environmental Stochasticity
Life History Variation
Population Growth Rate
Pva
Stochastic Population Dynamics
Time To Extinction
Viable Population Size
Issue Date2005
PublisherEcological Society of America. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.esajournals.org/loi/ecol
Citation
Ecology, 2005, v. 86 n. 3, p. 693-700 How to Cite?
AbstractThe risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the extinct populations. We found for a set of 38 bird populations that environmental stochasticity had the most immediate effect on the risk of extinction, whereas the long-term persistence of the population was most strongly affected by the specific population growth rate. This illustrates the importance of including information on temporal trends in population size when assessing the viability of a population. We used these relationships to examine whether time to extinction can be predicted from interspecific life history variation. Two alternative hypotheses were examined. (1) Time to extinction should decrease with increasing clutch size or decreasing survival rate because of the larger stochastic components in the population dynamics of such species. (2) Time to extinction should increase with decreasing clutch size or longer life expectancy if extinction rates are most strongly influenced by variation in the specific population growth rate. In the present data set, time to extinction increased with decreasing clutch size because of larger stochastic influences on the population dynamics of species with large clutch sizes located toward the fast end of the "slow-fast continuum" of life history variation. This demonstrates that interspecific variation in extinction risk can be predicted from knowledge of general life history characteristics. Such information can therefore be useful for assessing minimum sizes of viable populations of birds. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/178888
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 4.733
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.995
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSæther, BEen_US
dc.contributor.authorEngen, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorMøller, APen_US
dc.contributor.authorVisser, MEen_US
dc.contributor.authorMatthysen, Een_US
dc.contributor.authorFiedler, Wen_US
dc.contributor.authorLambrechts, MMen_US
dc.contributor.authorBecker, PHen_US
dc.contributor.authorBrommer, JEen_US
dc.contributor.authorDickinson, Jen_US
dc.contributor.authorDu Feu, Cen_US
dc.contributor.authorGehlbach, FRen_US
dc.contributor.authorMerilä, Jen_US
dc.contributor.authorRendell, Wen_US
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, RJen_US
dc.contributor.authorThomson, Den_US
dc.contributor.authorTörök, Jen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T09:50:28Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T09:50:28Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_US
dc.identifier.citationEcology, 2005, v. 86 n. 3, p. 693-700en_US
dc.identifier.issn0012-9658en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/178888-
dc.description.abstractThe risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the extinct populations. We found for a set of 38 bird populations that environmental stochasticity had the most immediate effect on the risk of extinction, whereas the long-term persistence of the population was most strongly affected by the specific population growth rate. This illustrates the importance of including information on temporal trends in population size when assessing the viability of a population. We used these relationships to examine whether time to extinction can be predicted from interspecific life history variation. Two alternative hypotheses were examined. (1) Time to extinction should decrease with increasing clutch size or decreasing survival rate because of the larger stochastic components in the population dynamics of such species. (2) Time to extinction should increase with decreasing clutch size or longer life expectancy if extinction rates are most strongly influenced by variation in the specific population growth rate. In the present data set, time to extinction increased with decreasing clutch size because of larger stochastic influences on the population dynamics of species with large clutch sizes located toward the fast end of the "slow-fast continuum" of life history variation. This demonstrates that interspecific variation in extinction risk can be predicted from knowledge of general life history characteristics. Such information can therefore be useful for assessing minimum sizes of viable populations of birds. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherEcological Society of America. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.esajournals.org/loi/ecolen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEcologyen_US
dc.subjectBirdsen_US
dc.subjectClutch Sizeen_US
dc.subjectComparative Analysesen_US
dc.subjectDemographyen_US
dc.subjectEnvironmental Stochasticityen_US
dc.subjectLife History Variationen_US
dc.subjectPopulation Growth Rateen_US
dc.subjectPvaen_US
dc.subjectStochastic Population Dynamicsen_US
dc.subjectTime To Extinctionen_US
dc.subjectViable Population Sizeen_US
dc.titleTime to extinction of bird populationsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailThomson, D: dthomson@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityThomson, D=rp00788en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-20144373171en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-20144373171&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume86en_US
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.spage693en_US
dc.identifier.epage700en_US
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSæther, BE=7006918639en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridEngen, S=7006576229en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMøller, AP=7401763629en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridVisser, ME=7102107086en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMatthysen, E=7006037654en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFiedler, W=7005907379en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLambrechts, MM=7005569882en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBecker, PH=26643261800en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBrommer, JE=54790549700en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDickinson, J=7202899831en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDu Feu, C=6507552393en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridGehlbach, FR=6602410136en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMerilä, J=7004683954en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRendell, W=6602190100en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRobertson, RJ=7403142854en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridThomson, D=7202586830en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTörök, J=7006329174en_US

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