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Article: Comparison of procedures for estimating the parent probability distribution from a given set of fractiles

TitleComparison of procedures for estimating the parent probability distribution from a given set of fractiles
Authors
Issue Date2000
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ejor
Citation
European Journal Of Operational Research, 2000, v. 120 n. 3, p. 657-670 How to Cite?
AbstractOn one hand, eliciting subjective probabilities (fractiles) is a well-established procedure. On the other hand, knowledge of a subjective variable's central moments or distribution function is often assumed. However, the problem of converting elicited fractiles into the required moments or distribution function has been largely ignored. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedures often produce huge errors. Alternative procedures are proposed; the `Tocher's curve' and `linear function of fractiles' methods are shown to be much more accurate than the commonly used procedures.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177878
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.679
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.595
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLau, HSen_US
dc.contributor.authorLau, AHLen_US
dc.contributor.authorKottas, JFen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T09:40:40Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T09:40:40Z-
dc.date.issued2000en_US
dc.identifier.citationEuropean Journal Of Operational Research, 2000, v. 120 n. 3, p. 657-670en_US
dc.identifier.issn0377-2217en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177878-
dc.description.abstractOn one hand, eliciting subjective probabilities (fractiles) is a well-established procedure. On the other hand, knowledge of a subjective variable's central moments or distribution function is often assumed. However, the problem of converting elicited fractiles into the required moments or distribution function has been largely ignored. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedures often produce huge errors. Alternative procedures are proposed; the `Tocher's curve' and `linear function of fractiles' methods are shown to be much more accurate than the commonly used procedures.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ejoren_US
dc.relation.ispartofEuropean Journal of Operational Researchen_US
dc.titleComparison of procedures for estimating the parent probability distribution from a given set of fractilesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailLau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityLau, AHL=rp01072en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00002-8en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0033908432en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0033908432&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume120en_US
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.spage657en_US
dc.identifier.epage670en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000083975600015-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlandsen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, HS=7201497264en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, AHL=7202626080en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKottas, JF=6701582049en_US

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