File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Natural Sample Spaces and Uncertain Belief

TitleNatural Sample Spaces and Uncertain Belief
Authors
Issue Date1992
PublisherAmerican Psychological Association. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.apa.org/journals/psp.html
Citation
Journal Of Personality And Social Psychology, 1992, v. 63 n. 5, p. 766-780 How to Cite?
AbstractThis article proposes a novel framework for understanding judgments of probability. Both accurate and inaccurate judgments are conceptualized in terms of the sets of information, or sample spaces, on which they are based. When appropriate sample spaces are easily accessed from memory (e.g., when they correspond to natural cognitive categories), people will make relatively accurate judgments; otherwise, people may substitute more accessible but inappropriate sample spaces and make judgment errors. In 3 experiments, the sample space framework was applied to account for the base rate fallacy. Results showed that (a) people spontaneously access sample spaces that correspond to natural categories, (b) reliance on inappropriate sample spaces produces the base rate fallacy, and (c) highlighting appropriate sample spaces improves the sensitivity of people's judgments to base rates. Discussion extends the framework to explain accuracy and error in other judgment domains.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177837
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 4.736
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 5.040

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorGavanski, Ien_US
dc.contributor.authorHui, Cen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T09:40:31Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T09:40:31Z-
dc.date.issued1992en_US
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Personality And Social Psychology, 1992, v. 63 n. 5, p. 766-780en_US
dc.identifier.issn0022-3514en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177837-
dc.description.abstractThis article proposes a novel framework for understanding judgments of probability. Both accurate and inaccurate judgments are conceptualized in terms of the sets of information, or sample spaces, on which they are based. When appropriate sample spaces are easily accessed from memory (e.g., when they correspond to natural cognitive categories), people will make relatively accurate judgments; otherwise, people may substitute more accessible but inappropriate sample spaces and make judgment errors. In 3 experiments, the sample space framework was applied to account for the base rate fallacy. Results showed that (a) people spontaneously access sample spaces that correspond to natural categories, (b) reliance on inappropriate sample spaces produces the base rate fallacy, and (c) highlighting appropriate sample spaces improves the sensitivity of people's judgments to base rates. Discussion extends the framework to explain accuracy and error in other judgment domains.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Psychological Association. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.apa.org/journals/psp.htmlen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Personality and Social Psychologyen_US
dc.titleNatural Sample Spaces and Uncertain Beliefen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailHui, C: chunhui@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityHui, C=rp01069en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1037/0022-3514.63.5.766-
dc.identifier.pmid1447692-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0026953630en_US
dc.identifier.volume63en_US
dc.identifier.issue5en_US
dc.identifier.spage766en_US
dc.identifier.epage780en_US
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridGavanski, I=6602547765en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHui, C=7202876939en_US

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats