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Postgraduate Thesis: The real effects of credit default swaps
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TitleThe real effects of credit default swaps
 
AuthorsWang, Qian, Sarah.
王倩.
 
Issue Date2012
 
PublisherThe University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong)
 
AbstractIn recent years, concerns have been raised about the real effects of credit default swaps (CDS) on the economy. Different from the hitherto accepted view that derivatives are redundant, CDS may affect the credit risk and strategic liquidity decision of the reference entities. In this dissertation, I use a unique, comprehensive sample covering 901 CDS introductions on North American corporate issuers, between June 1997 and April 2009, to address these questions. In chapter 2, I investigate whether CDS trading increases the credit risk of the reference entities. I find that the probability of both a credit rating downgrade and bankruptcy increase after the inception of CDS trading. This finding is robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading in difference-in-difference analysis, propensity score matching, and treatment regressions with instruments. In further corroboration of our basic results, I explore the mechanism behind the increased credit risk after CDS trading, and show that firms with relatively larger amounts of CDS contracts outstanding, and those with more “no restructuring” contracts, are more adversely affected by CDS trading. In chapter 3, I further investigate the effect of CDS on corporate cash holding policies. U.S. firms are holding more cash than at any time in nearly half a century. I find that CDS trading affects corporate cash holdings. Corporate cash holdings increase after the inception of CDS trading. The impact is significant after controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Moreover, cash-to-assets ratios for firms with larger CDS contracts outstanding, and those with less access to financial market are more affected by CDS trading. The impact of CDS is beyond the direct effect of line of credit on cash holdings.
 
DegreeDoctor of Philosophy
 
SubjectCredit derivatives.
Swaps (Finance)
Default (Finance)
 
Dept/ProgramEconomics and Finance
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorWang, Qian, Sarah.
 
dc.contributor.author王倩.
 
dc.date.hkucongregation2012
 
dc.date.issued2012
 
dc.description.abstractIn recent years, concerns have been raised about the real effects of credit default swaps (CDS) on the economy. Different from the hitherto accepted view that derivatives are redundant, CDS may affect the credit risk and strategic liquidity decision of the reference entities. In this dissertation, I use a unique, comprehensive sample covering 901 CDS introductions on North American corporate issuers, between June 1997 and April 2009, to address these questions. In chapter 2, I investigate whether CDS trading increases the credit risk of the reference entities. I find that the probability of both a credit rating downgrade and bankruptcy increase after the inception of CDS trading. This finding is robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading in difference-in-difference analysis, propensity score matching, and treatment regressions with instruments. In further corroboration of our basic results, I explore the mechanism behind the increased credit risk after CDS trading, and show that firms with relatively larger amounts of CDS contracts outstanding, and those with more “no restructuring” contracts, are more adversely affected by CDS trading. In chapter 3, I further investigate the effect of CDS on corporate cash holding policies. U.S. firms are holding more cash than at any time in nearly half a century. I find that CDS trading affects corporate cash holdings. Corporate cash holdings increase after the inception of CDS trading. The impact is significant after controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Moreover, cash-to-assets ratios for firms with larger CDS contracts outstanding, and those with less access to financial market are more affected by CDS trading. The impact of CDS is beyond the direct effect of line of credit on cash holdings.
 
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version
 
dc.description.thesisdisciplineEconomics and Finance
 
dc.description.thesisleveldoctoral
 
dc.description.thesisnameDoctor of Philosophy
 
dc.identifier.hkulb4832957
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherThe University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong)
 
dc.relation.ispartofHKU Theses Online (HKUTO)
 
dc.rightsThe author retains all proprietary rights, (such as patent rights) and the right to use in future works.
 
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License
 
dc.source.urihttp://hub.hku.hk/bib/B48329575
 
dc.subject.lcshCredit derivatives.
 
dc.subject.lcshSwaps (Finance)
 
dc.subject.lcshDefault (Finance)
 
dc.titleThe real effects of credit default swaps
 
dc.typePG_Thesis
 
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<date.issued>2012</date.issued>
<description.abstract>&#65279;In recent years, concerns have been raised about the real effects of credit default swaps (CDS) on the economy. Different from the hitherto accepted view that derivatives are redundant, CDS may affect the credit risk and strategic liquidity decision of the reference entities. In this dissertation, I use a unique, comprehensive sample covering 901 CDS introductions on North American corporate issuers, between June 1997 and April 2009, to address these questions.



In chapter 2, I investigate whether CDS trading increases the credit risk of the reference entities. I find that the probability of both a credit rating downgrade and bankruptcy increase after the inception of CDS trading. This finding is robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading in difference-in-difference analysis, propensity score matching, and treatment regressions with instruments. In further corroboration of our basic results, I explore the mechanism behind the increased credit risk after CDS trading, and show that firms with relatively larger amounts of CDS contracts outstanding, and those with more &#8220;no restructuring&#8221; contracts, are more adversely affected by CDS trading.



In chapter 3, I further investigate the effect of CDS on corporate cash holding policies. U.S. firms are holding more cash than at any time in nearly half a century. I find that CDS trading affects corporate cash holdings. Corporate cash holdings increase after the inception of CDS trading. The impact is significant after controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Moreover, cash-to-assets ratios for firms with larger CDS contracts outstanding, and those with less access to financial market are more affected by CDS trading. The impact of CDS is beyond the direct effect of line of credit on cash holdings.</description.abstract>
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<rights>Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License</rights>
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<date.hkucongregation>2012</date.hkucongregation>
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