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Article: Development and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes: The Hong Kong diabetes registry

TitleDevelopment and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes: The Hong Kong diabetes registry
Authors
Issue Date2008
PublisherAmerican Medical Association. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.archinternmed.com
Citation
Archives Of Internal Medicine, 2008, v. 168 n. 5, p. 451-457 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Diabetes reduces life expectancy by 10 to 12 years, but whether death can be predicted in type 2 diabetes mellitus remains uncertain. Methods: A prospective cohort of 7583 type 2 diabetic patients enrolled since 1995 were censored on July 30, 2005, or after 6 years of follow-up, whichever came first. A restricted cubic spline model was used to check data linearity and to develop linear-transforming formulas. Data were randomly assigned to a training data set and to a test data set. A Cox model was used to develop risk scores in the test data set. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the test data set. Results: A total of 619 patients died during a median follow-up period of 5.51 years, resulting in a mortality rate of 18.69 per 1000 person-years. Age, sex, peripheral arterial disease, cancer history, insulin use, blood hemoglobin levels, linear-transformed body mass index, random spot urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at enrollment were predictors of all-cause death. A risk score for all-cause mortality was developed using these predictors. The predicted and observed death rates in the test data set were similar (P>.70). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 for 5 years of follow-up. Using the risk score in ranking cause-specific deaths, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 for genitourinary death, 0.85 for circulatory death, 0.85 for respiratory death, and 0.71 for neoplasm death. Conclusions: Death in type 2 diabetes mellitus can be predicted using a risk score consisting of commonly measured clinical and biochemical variables. Further validation is needed before clinical use. ©2008 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/170396
ISSN
2014 Impact Factor: 17.333
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorYang, Xen_US
dc.contributor.authorSo, WYen_US
dc.contributor.authorTong, PCYen_US
dc.contributor.authorMa, RCWen_US
dc.contributor.authorKong, APSen_US
dc.contributor.authorLam, CWKen_US
dc.contributor.authorHo, CSen_US
dc.contributor.authorCockram, CSen_US
dc.contributor.authorKo, GTCen_US
dc.contributor.authorChow, CCen_US
dc.contributor.authorWong, VCWen_US
dc.contributor.authorChan, JCNen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-30T06:08:01Z-
dc.date.available2012-10-30T06:08:01Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.citationArchives Of Internal Medicine, 2008, v. 168 n. 5, p. 451-457en_US
dc.identifier.issn0003-9926en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/170396-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Diabetes reduces life expectancy by 10 to 12 years, but whether death can be predicted in type 2 diabetes mellitus remains uncertain. Methods: A prospective cohort of 7583 type 2 diabetic patients enrolled since 1995 were censored on July 30, 2005, or after 6 years of follow-up, whichever came first. A restricted cubic spline model was used to check data linearity and to develop linear-transforming formulas. Data were randomly assigned to a training data set and to a test data set. A Cox model was used to develop risk scores in the test data set. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the test data set. Results: A total of 619 patients died during a median follow-up period of 5.51 years, resulting in a mortality rate of 18.69 per 1000 person-years. Age, sex, peripheral arterial disease, cancer history, insulin use, blood hemoglobin levels, linear-transformed body mass index, random spot urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at enrollment were predictors of all-cause death. A risk score for all-cause mortality was developed using these predictors. The predicted and observed death rates in the test data set were similar (P>.70). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 for 5 years of follow-up. Using the risk score in ranking cause-specific deaths, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 for genitourinary death, 0.85 for circulatory death, 0.85 for respiratory death, and 0.71 for neoplasm death. Conclusions: Death in type 2 diabetes mellitus can be predicted using a risk score consisting of commonly measured clinical and biochemical variables. Further validation is needed before clinical use. ©2008 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Medical Association. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.archinternmed.comen_US
dc.relation.ispartofArchives of Internal Medicineen_US
dc.titleDevelopment and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes: The Hong Kong diabetes registryen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailWong, VCW:vcnwong@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityWong, VCW=rp00334en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1001/archinte.168.5.451en_US
dc.identifier.pmid18332288-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-41949099014en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-41949099014&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume168en_US
dc.identifier.issue5en_US
dc.identifier.spage451en_US
dc.identifier.epage457en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000253881400002-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYang, X=15520304200en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSo, WY=7004974019en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTong, PCY=7102333153en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMa, RCW=8151571700en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKong, APS=34869982000en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLam, CWK=8531362100en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, CS=7404653591en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCockram, CS=7006379262en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKo, GTC=7103172871en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChow, CC=8252323700en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, VCW=7202525632en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChan, JCN=35232571000en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike3796069-

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