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Article: Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts

TitleTolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts
Authors
KeywordsBiodiversity
Environmental tolerance
Global warming
Issue Date2010
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.org
Citation
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2010, v. 107 n. 28, p. 12581-12586 How to Cite?
AbstractGlobal patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in highlatitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/169861
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 9.423
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 6.883
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBonebrake, TCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMastrandrea, MDen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-25T04:57:08Z-
dc.date.available2012-10-25T04:57:08Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationProceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2010, v. 107 n. 28, p. 12581-12586en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/169861-
dc.description.abstractGlobal patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in highlatitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.orgen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_HK
dc.subjectBiodiversityen_HK
dc.subjectEnvironmental toleranceen_HK
dc.subjectGlobal warmingen_HK
dc.subject.meshAdaptation, Physiologicalen_US
dc.subject.meshBiodiversityen_US
dc.subject.meshBiological Evolutionen_US
dc.subject.meshClimateen_US
dc.subject.meshClimate Changeen_US
dc.subject.meshEcosystemen_US
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_US
dc.subject.meshGeographyen_US
dc.subject.meshTemperatureen_US
dc.titleTolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impactsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailBonebrake, TC: tbone@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityBonebrake, TC=rp01676en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.0911841107en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid20616038-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77955456058en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77955456058&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume107en_HK
dc.identifier.issue28en_HK
dc.identifier.spage12581en_HK
dc.identifier.epage12586en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000279843200035-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBonebrake, TC=12798028100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMastrandrea, MD=6602804620en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike7476585-

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