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postgraduate thesis: Mining optimal technical trading rules with genetic algorithms

TitleMining optimal technical trading rules with genetic algorithms
Authors
Advisors
Advisor(s):Yu, PLH
Issue Date2011
PublisherThe University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong)
Citation
Shen, R. [沈汝君]. (2011). Mining optimal technical trading rules with genetic algorithms. (Thesis). University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.5353/th_b4787001
AbstractIn recent years technical trading rules are widely known by more and more people, not only the academics many investors also learn to apply them in financial markets. One approach of constructing technical trading rules is to use technical indicators, such as moving average(MA) and filter rules. These trading rules are widely used possibly because the technical indicators are simple to compute and can be programmed easily. An alternative approach of constructing technical trading rules is to rely on some chart patterns. However, the patterns and signals detected by these rules are often made by the visual inspection through human eyes. As for as I know, there are no universally acceptable methods of constructing the chart patterns. In 2000, Prof. Andrew Lo and his colleagues are the first ones who define five pairs of chart patterns mathematically. They are Head-and-Shoulders(HS) & Inverted Headand- Shoulders(IHS), Broadening tops(BTOP) & bottoms(BBOT), Triangle tops(TTOP) & bottoms(TBOT), Rectangle tops(RTOP) & bottoms( RBOT) and Double tops(DTOP) & bottoms(DBOT). The basic formulation of a chart pattern consists of two steps: detection of (i) extreme points of a price series; and (ii) shape of the pattern. In Lo et al.(2000), the method of kernel smoothing was used to identify the extreme points. It was admitted by Lo et al. (2000) that the optimal bandwidth used in kernel method is not the best choice and the expert judgement is needed in detecting the bandwidth. In addition, their work considered chart pattern detection only but no buy/sell signal detection. It should be noted that it is possible to have a chart pattern formed without a signal detected, but in this case no transaction will be made. In this thesis, I propose a new class of technical trading rules which aims to resolve the above problems. More specifically, each chart pattern is parameterized by a set of parameters which governs the shape of the pattern, the entry and exit signals of trades. Then the optimal set of parameters can be determined by using genetic algorithms (GAs). The advantage of GA is that they can deal with a high-dimensional optimization problems no matter the parameters to be optimized are continuous or discrete. In addition, GA can also be convenient to use in the situation that the fitness function is not differentiable or has a multi-modal surface.
DegreeMaster of Philosophy
SubjectStocks - Prices - Statistical methods.
Investments - Statistical methods.
Genetic algorithms.
Dept/ProgramStatistics and Actuarial Science

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.advisorYu, PLH-
dc.contributor.authorShen, Rujun-
dc.contributor.author沈汝君-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.citationShen, R. [沈汝君]. (2011). Mining optimal technical trading rules with genetic algorithms. (Thesis). University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.5353/th_b4787001-
dc.description.abstractIn recent years technical trading rules are widely known by more and more people, not only the academics many investors also learn to apply them in financial markets. One approach of constructing technical trading rules is to use technical indicators, such as moving average(MA) and filter rules. These trading rules are widely used possibly because the technical indicators are simple to compute and can be programmed easily. An alternative approach of constructing technical trading rules is to rely on some chart patterns. However, the patterns and signals detected by these rules are often made by the visual inspection through human eyes. As for as I know, there are no universally acceptable methods of constructing the chart patterns. In 2000, Prof. Andrew Lo and his colleagues are the first ones who define five pairs of chart patterns mathematically. They are Head-and-Shoulders(HS) & Inverted Headand- Shoulders(IHS), Broadening tops(BTOP) & bottoms(BBOT), Triangle tops(TTOP) & bottoms(TBOT), Rectangle tops(RTOP) & bottoms( RBOT) and Double tops(DTOP) & bottoms(DBOT). The basic formulation of a chart pattern consists of two steps: detection of (i) extreme points of a price series; and (ii) shape of the pattern. In Lo et al.(2000), the method of kernel smoothing was used to identify the extreme points. It was admitted by Lo et al. (2000) that the optimal bandwidth used in kernel method is not the best choice and the expert judgement is needed in detecting the bandwidth. In addition, their work considered chart pattern detection only but no buy/sell signal detection. It should be noted that it is possible to have a chart pattern formed without a signal detected, but in this case no transaction will be made. In this thesis, I propose a new class of technical trading rules which aims to resolve the above problems. More specifically, each chart pattern is parameterized by a set of parameters which governs the shape of the pattern, the entry and exit signals of trades. Then the optimal set of parameters can be determined by using genetic algorithms (GAs). The advantage of GA is that they can deal with a high-dimensional optimization problems no matter the parameters to be optimized are continuous or discrete. In addition, GA can also be convenient to use in the situation that the fitness function is not differentiable or has a multi-modal surface.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherThe University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong)-
dc.relation.ispartofHKU Theses Online (HKUTO)-
dc.rightsThe author retains all proprietary rights, (such as patent rights) and the right to use in future works.-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.source.urihttp://hub.hku.hk/bib/B47870011-
dc.subject.lcshStocks - Prices - Statistical methods.-
dc.subject.lcshInvestments - Statistical methods.-
dc.subject.lcshGenetic algorithms.-
dc.titleMining optimal technical trading rules with genetic algorithms-
dc.typePG_Thesis-
dc.identifier.hkulb4787001-
dc.description.thesisnameMaster of Philosophy-
dc.description.thesislevelMaster-
dc.description.thesisdisciplineStatistics and Actuarial Science-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.5353/th_b4787001-
dc.date.hkucongregation2012-

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