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Article: The time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an iceberg: Joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potential

TitleThe time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an iceberg: Joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potential
Authors
Issue Date2012
PublisherHindawi Publishing Corporation. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/
Citation
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2012, v. 2012, p. 978901 How to Cite?
AbstractEstimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) of a novel strain of influenza virus during the early stage of the pandemic is one of key epidemiological tasks to be conducted as rapid research response. Past experience during the epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza A (H1N1-2009) posed several technical challenges in estimating the CFR in real time. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to estimate the CFR based on readily available datasets, that is, confirmed cases and deaths, while addressing some of the known technical issues. To assess the reliability and validity of the proposed method, we examined the minimum length of time required for the assigned CFR to be included within the 95% confidence intervals and for the estimated CFR to be below a prespecified cut-off value by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Overall, the smaller the transmission potential was, the longer it took to compare the estimated CFR against the cut-off value. If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/160033
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.887
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.415
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorEjima, Ken_US
dc.contributor.authorOmori, Ren_US
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_US
dc.contributor.authorAihara, Ken_US
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-16T06:01:29Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-16T06:01:29Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.citationComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2012, v. 2012, p. 978901en_US
dc.identifier.issn1748-670X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/160033-
dc.description.abstractEstimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) of a novel strain of influenza virus during the early stage of the pandemic is one of key epidemiological tasks to be conducted as rapid research response. Past experience during the epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza A (H1N1-2009) posed several technical challenges in estimating the CFR in real time. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to estimate the CFR based on readily available datasets, that is, confirmed cases and deaths, while addressing some of the known technical issues. To assess the reliability and validity of the proposed method, we examined the minimum length of time required for the assigned CFR to be included within the 95% confidence intervals and for the estimated CFR to be below a prespecified cut-off value by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Overall, the smaller the transmission potential was, the longer it took to compare the estimated CFR against the cut-off value. If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months.-
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherHindawi Publishing Corporation. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/-
dc.relation.ispartofComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicineen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Diseases, Emerging - mortality - transmission-
dc.subject.meshComputer Simulation-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - mortality - transmission - virology-
dc.subject.meshModels, Biological-
dc.subject.meshMortality-
dc.titleThe time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an iceberg: Joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potentialen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailOmori, R: omori@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H: nishiura@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_US
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_US
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1155/2012/978901-
dc.identifier.pmid22649483-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3357941-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84862275867-
dc.identifier.hkuros203789en_US
dc.identifier.volume2012en_US
dc.identifier.spage978901en_US
dc.identifier.epage978901en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000305056600001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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