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Article: Weather inference and daily demand for emergency ambulance services

TitleWeather inference and daily demand for emergency ambulance services
Authors
Issue Date2012
PublisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.emjonline.com
Citation
Emergency Medicine Journal, 2012, v. 29 n. 1, p. 60-64 How to Cite?
AbstractAim: To examine weather effects on the daily demand for ambulance services in Hong Kong. Methods Over 6 million cases of emergency attendance from May 2006 through April 2009 (3 years) were obtained from the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong. These cases were further stratified by age, triage levels, hospital admission status, comprehensive social security assistance (CSSA) recipients and gender. The stratification was used to correlate against weather factors to assess the dependency of these variables and their effects on the daily number of ambulance calls. Adjusted-R 2 values obtained from the regression analysis were used as a measure for evaluating predictability. Results: The adjusted-R 2 of emergency cases by age groups showed proportional correlation with weather factors, which was more significant in older patients (0.76, p<0.01) than young patients (0.10, p<0.05). Furthermore, patients with more severe conditions were shown to have a higher adjusted-R 2 (0.63, p<0.05 for critical as opposed to 0 for non-urgent patients). Weather effects were also found more significant in women (0.50, p<0.01) and CSSA recipients (0.54, p<0.01) when compared against their corresponding reference groups (respectively men at 0.46, p<0.01 and non-CSSA recipients at 0.45, p<0.01). Moreover, average temperature appeared to be a major weather effect. Conclusions: The presence of strong weather effects among different target groups indicates possibility for the development of a short-term forecast system of daily ambulance demand using weather variables. The availability of such a forecast system would render more effective deployment of the ambulance services to meet the unexpected increase in service demands.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/157930
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.836
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.724
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
University of Hong Kong
Funding Information:

We are grateful for funding support from the University of Hong Kong GRF Incentive Award 2008-09 for the acquisition of research data.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWong, HTen_US
dc.contributor.authorLai, PCen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-08T08:56:22Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-08T08:56:22Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.citationEmergency Medicine Journal, 2012, v. 29 n. 1, p. 60-64en_US
dc.identifier.issn1472-0205en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/157930-
dc.description.abstractAim: To examine weather effects on the daily demand for ambulance services in Hong Kong. Methods Over 6 million cases of emergency attendance from May 2006 through April 2009 (3 years) were obtained from the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong. These cases were further stratified by age, triage levels, hospital admission status, comprehensive social security assistance (CSSA) recipients and gender. The stratification was used to correlate against weather factors to assess the dependency of these variables and their effects on the daily number of ambulance calls. Adjusted-R 2 values obtained from the regression analysis were used as a measure for evaluating predictability. Results: The adjusted-R 2 of emergency cases by age groups showed proportional correlation with weather factors, which was more significant in older patients (0.76, p<0.01) than young patients (0.10, p<0.05). Furthermore, patients with more severe conditions were shown to have a higher adjusted-R 2 (0.63, p<0.05 for critical as opposed to 0 for non-urgent patients). Weather effects were also found more significant in women (0.50, p<0.01) and CSSA recipients (0.54, p<0.01) when compared against their corresponding reference groups (respectively men at 0.46, p<0.01 and non-CSSA recipients at 0.45, p<0.01). Moreover, average temperature appeared to be a major weather effect. Conclusions: The presence of strong weather effects among different target groups indicates possibility for the development of a short-term forecast system of daily ambulance demand using weather variables. The availability of such a forecast system would render more effective deployment of the ambulance services to meet the unexpected increase in service demands.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.emjonline.comen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEmergency Medicine Journalen_US
dc.subject.meshAdolescenten_US
dc.subject.meshAdulten_US
dc.subject.meshAge Factorsen_US
dc.subject.meshAmbulances - Utilizationen_US
dc.subject.meshFemaleen_US
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_US
dc.subject.meshHealth Services Needs And Demand - Statistics & Numerical Dataen_US
dc.subject.meshHong Kongen_US
dc.subject.meshHospitalization - Statistics & Numerical Dataen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshMaleen_US
dc.subject.meshMiddle Ageden_US
dc.subject.meshRegression Analysisen_US
dc.subject.meshSex Factorsen_US
dc.subject.meshWeatheren_US
dc.subject.meshYoung Adulten_US
dc.titleWeather inference and daily demand for emergency ambulance servicesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailLai, PC:pclai@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityLai, PC=rp00565en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/emj.2010.096701en_US
dc.identifier.pmid21030546-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84455212146en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-84455212146&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume29en_US
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.spage60en_US
dc.identifier.epage64en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1472-0213-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000298399700019-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, HT=36555301100en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLai, PC=7202946446en_US

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