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Article: The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

TitleThe causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis
Authors
KeywordsClimate Change - history
Agriculture - economics
Agriculture - history
Causality
Cereals - economics
Issue Date2011
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.org
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011, v. 108 n. 42, p. 17296-17301 How to Cite?
AbstractRecent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined 'golden' and 'dark' ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/157927
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 9.423
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 6.883
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZhang, DDen_US
dc.contributor.authorLee, HFen_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, Cen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Ben_US
dc.contributor.authorPei, Qen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Jen_US
dc.contributor.authorAn, Yen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-08T08:56:21Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-08T08:56:21Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011, v. 108 n. 42, p. 17296-17301en_US
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/157927-
dc.description.abstractRecent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined 'golden' and 'dark' ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.orgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
dc.subjectClimate Change - history-
dc.subjectAgriculture - economics-
dc.subjectAgriculture - history-
dc.subjectCausality-
dc.subjectCereals - economics-
dc.titleThe causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailZhang, DD: zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLee, HF: harry.lee@graduate.hku.hk-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1104268108en_US
dc.identifier.pmid21969578-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3198350-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-80054799674en_US
dc.identifier.hkuros206456-
dc.identifier.volume108en_US
dc.identifier.issue42en_US
dc.identifier.spage17296en_US
dc.identifier.epage17301en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1091-6490-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000295975300021-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.citeulike9853957-

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