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Article: Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

TitleGlobal climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history
Authors
Issue Date2007
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.org
Citation
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2007, v. 104 n. 49, p. 19214-19219 How to Cite?
AbstractAlthough scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/157892
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 9.423
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 6.883
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZhang, DDen_US
dc.contributor.authorBrecke, Pen_US
dc.contributor.authorLee, HFen_US
dc.contributor.authorHe, YQen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Jen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-08T08:56:10Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-08T08:56:10Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_US
dc.identifier.citationProceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2007, v. 104 n. 49, p. 19214-19219en_US
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/157892-
dc.description.abstractAlthough scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.orgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
dc.rightsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences.-
dc.subject.meshClimateen_US
dc.subject.meshGreenhouse Effecten_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 15Th Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 16Th Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 17Th Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 18Th Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 19Th Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 20Th Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, 21St Centuryen_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, Ancienten_US
dc.subject.meshHistory, Medievalen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshPopulation Densityen_US
dc.subject.meshTemperatureen_US
dc.subject.meshWaren_US
dc.titleGlobal climate change, war, and population decline in recent human historyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailZhang, DD:zhangd@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailLee, HF:harry.lee@graduate.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityZhang, DD=rp00649en_US
dc.identifier.authorityLee, HF=rp00646en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.0703073104en_US
dc.identifier.pmid18048343-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-37649024786en_US
dc.identifier.hkuros146153-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-37649024786&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume104en_US
dc.identifier.issue49en_US
dc.identifier.spage19214en_US
dc.identifier.epage19219en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1091-6490-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000251525800012-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.f10001102218-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridZhang, DD=9732911600en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBrecke, P=8747111800en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLee, HF=9243348000en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHe, YQ=7404942217en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridZhang, J=16508345600en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike2011946-

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