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Article: Predicting super spreading events during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics in Hong Kong and Singapore

TitlePredicting super spreading events during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics in Hong Kong and Singapore
Authors
KeywordsDisease outbreaks
Disease transmission
Infection
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Issue Date2004
PublisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/
Citation
American Journal Of Epidemiology, 2004, v. 160 n. 8, p. 719-728 How to Cite?
AbstractOne of the intriguing characteristics of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics was the occurrence of super spreading events (SSEs). Here, the authors report the results of identifying the occurrence of SSEs in the Hong Kong and Singapore epidemics using mathematical and statistical analysis. Their predicted occurrence of SSEs agreed well with the reported occurrence of all seven super spreaders in the two cities. Additional unidentified SSEs were also found to exist. It was found that 71.1% and 74.8% of the infections were attributable to SSEs in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively. There also seemed to be "synchronized" occurrences of infection peaks in both the community and the hospitals in Hong Kong. The results strongly suggested that the infection did not depend on the total number of symptomatic cases, with only a very small proportion of symptomatic individuals being shown to be infectious (i.e., able to infect other individuals). The authors found that the daily infection rate did not correlate with the daily total number of symptomatic cases but with the daily number of symptomatic cases who were not admitted to a hospital within 4 days of the onset of symptoms.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/156984
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 5.036
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.047
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLi, Yen_HK
dc.contributor.authorYu, ITSen_HK
dc.contributor.authorXu, Pen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLee, JHWen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWong, TWen_HK
dc.contributor.authorOoi, PLen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSleigh, ACen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-08T08:44:49Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-08T08:44:49Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationAmerican Journal Of Epidemiology, 2004, v. 160 n. 8, p. 719-728en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0002-9262en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/156984-
dc.description.abstractOne of the intriguing characteristics of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics was the occurrence of super spreading events (SSEs). Here, the authors report the results of identifying the occurrence of SSEs in the Hong Kong and Singapore epidemics using mathematical and statistical analysis. Their predicted occurrence of SSEs agreed well with the reported occurrence of all seven super spreaders in the two cities. Additional unidentified SSEs were also found to exist. It was found that 71.1% and 74.8% of the infections were attributable to SSEs in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively. There also seemed to be "synchronized" occurrences of infection peaks in both the community and the hospitals in Hong Kong. The results strongly suggested that the infection did not depend on the total number of symptomatic cases, with only a very small proportion of symptomatic individuals being shown to be infectious (i.e., able to infect other individuals). The authors found that the daily infection rate did not correlate with the daily total number of symptomatic cases but with the daily number of symptomatic cases who were not admitted to a hospital within 4 days of the onset of symptoms.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofAmerican Journal of Epidemiologyen_HK
dc.rightsAmerican Journal of Epidemiology. Copyright © Oxford University Press.-
dc.subjectDisease outbreaksen_HK
dc.subjectDisease transmissionen_HK
dc.subjectInfectionen_HK
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndromeen_HK
dc.subject.meshAdulten_US
dc.subject.meshBias (Epidemiology)en_US
dc.subject.meshCluster Analysisen_US
dc.subject.meshDisease Notificationen_US
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - Prevention & Control - Statistics & Numerical Dataen_US
dc.subject.meshEpidemiologic Methodsen_US
dc.subject.meshEpidemiologic Studiesen_US
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_US
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - Epidemiologyen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshInfection Controlen_US
dc.subject.meshMiddle Ageden_US
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_US
dc.subject.meshMorbidityen_US
dc.subject.meshPatient Admission - Statistics & Numerical Dataen_US
dc.subject.meshPopulation Surveillanceen_US
dc.subject.meshPredictive Value Of Testsen_US
dc.subject.meshProbabilityen_US
dc.subject.meshRisk Factorsen_US
dc.subject.meshSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome - Epidemiology - Etiology - Prevention & Control - Transmissionen_US
dc.subject.meshSingapore - Epidemiologyen_US
dc.subject.meshTime Factorsen_US
dc.subject.meshUrban Health - Statistics & Numerical Dataen_US
dc.titlePredicting super spreading events during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics in Hong Kong and Singaporeen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0002-9262&volume=160&issue=8&spage=719&epage=728&date=2004&atitle=Prediciting+super+spreading+events+during+the+2003+severe+acute+respiratory+syndrome+epidemics+in+Hong+Kong+and+Singapore-
dc.identifier.emailLi, Y: liyg@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLee, JHW: hreclhw@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLi, Y=rp00151en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLee, JHW=rp00061en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/aje/kwh273en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid15466494-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-5444243089en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros101797-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-5444243089&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume160en_HK
dc.identifier.issue8en_HK
dc.identifier.spage719en_HK
dc.identifier.epage728en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000224361000001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLi, Y=7502094052en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYu, ITS=7102120508en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridXu, P=35231719300en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLee, JHW=36078318900en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTze, WW=8333472800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridPeng, LO=7201574344en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSleigh, AC=7003585563en_HK

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