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Article: The correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two cases

TitleThe correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two cases
Authors
Issue Date2011
PublisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yjtbi
Citation
Journal Of Theoretical Biology, 2011, v. 284 n. 1, p. 52-60 How to Cite?
AbstractThe generation time of an infectious disease is the time between infection of a primary case and infection of a secondary case by the primary case. Its distribution plays a key role in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases in populations, e.g. in estimating the basic reproduction number. Moreover, the generation time and incubation period distributions together characterize the effectiveness of control by isolation and quarantine. In modelling studies, a relation between the two is often not made specific, but a correlation is biologically plausible. However, it is difficult to establish such correlation, because of the unobservable nature of infection events. We have quantified a joint distribution of generation time and incubation period by a novel estimation method for household data with two susceptible individuals, consisting of time intervals between disease onsets of two measles cases. We used two such datasets, and a separate incubation period dataset. Results indicate that the mean incubation period and the generation time of measles are positively correlated, and that both lie in the range of 11-12 days, suggesting that infectiousness of measles cases increases significantly around the time of symptom onset. The correlation between times from infection to secondary transmission and to symptom onset could critically affect the predicted effectiveness of isolation and quarantine. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151745
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.049
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.089
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
JST
Funding Information:

We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments. The work of HN was supported by the JST PRESTO program.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorKlinkenberg, Den_US
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:27:47Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:27:47Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Theoretical Biology, 2011, v. 284 n. 1, p. 52-60en_US
dc.identifier.issn0022-5193en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151745-
dc.description.abstractThe generation time of an infectious disease is the time between infection of a primary case and infection of a secondary case by the primary case. Its distribution plays a key role in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases in populations, e.g. in estimating the basic reproduction number. Moreover, the generation time and incubation period distributions together characterize the effectiveness of control by isolation and quarantine. In modelling studies, a relation between the two is often not made specific, but a correlation is biologically plausible. However, it is difficult to establish such correlation, because of the unobservable nature of infection events. We have quantified a joint distribution of generation time and incubation period by a novel estimation method for household data with two susceptible individuals, consisting of time intervals between disease onsets of two measles cases. We used two such datasets, and a separate incubation period dataset. Results indicate that the mean incubation period and the generation time of measles are positively correlated, and that both lie in the range of 11-12 days, suggesting that infectiousness of measles cases increases significantly around the time of symptom onset. The correlation between times from infection to secondary transmission and to symptom onset could critically affect the predicted effectiveness of isolation and quarantine. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yjtbien_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Theoretical Biologyen_US
dc.subject.meshBasic Reproduction Numberen_US
dc.subject.meshFamily Healthen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshMeasles - Epidemiology - Prevention & Control - Transmissionen_US
dc.subject.meshModels, Biologicalen_US
dc.subject.meshQuarantineen_US
dc.subject.meshTime Factorsen_US
dc.titleThe correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two casesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.06.015en_US
dc.identifier.pmid21704640-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79959615598en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-79959615598&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume284en_US
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.spage52en_US
dc.identifier.epage60en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000293672600007-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKlinkenberg, D=6603417925en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike9508177-

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