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Article: Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: Pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand

TitleEarly estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: Pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand
Authors
Issue Date2011
PublisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
Citation
Plos One, 2011, v. 6 n. 5 How to Cite?
AbstractWe analyse data from the early epidemic of H1N1-2009 in New Zealand, and estimate the reproduction number R. We employ a renewal process which accounts for imported cases, illustrate some technical pitfalls, and propose a novel estimation method to address these pitfalls. Explicitly accounting for the infection-age distribution of imported cases and for the delay in transmission dynamics due to international travel, R was estimated to be 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.07,1.47). Hence we show that a previous study, which did not account for these factors, overestimated R. Our approach also permitted us to examine the infection-age at which secondary transmission occurs as a function of calendar time, demonstrating the downward bias during the beginning of the epidemic. These technical issues may compromise the usefulness of a well-known estimator of R - the inverse of the moment-generating function of the generation time given the intrinsic growth rate. Explicit modelling of the infection-age distribution among imported cases and the examination of the time dependency of the generation time play key roles in avoiding a biased estimate of R, especially when one only has data covering a short time interval during the early growth phase of the epidemic. © 2011 Roberts, Nishiura.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151740
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.057
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.395
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Health Research Council10/754
Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan
Funding Information:

MGR wishes to acknowledge funding from the Health Research Council under contract number 10/754 (www.hrc.govt.nz/index.html). HN receives support from the Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan, through the PRESTO programme (www.jst.go.jp/kisoken/presto/index_e.html). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, MGen_US
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:27:44Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:27:44Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.citationPlos One, 2011, v. 6 n. 5en_US
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151740-
dc.description.abstractWe analyse data from the early epidemic of H1N1-2009 in New Zealand, and estimate the reproduction number R. We employ a renewal process which accounts for imported cases, illustrate some technical pitfalls, and propose a novel estimation method to address these pitfalls. Explicitly accounting for the infection-age distribution of imported cases and for the delay in transmission dynamics due to international travel, R was estimated to be 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.07,1.47). Hence we show that a previous study, which did not account for these factors, overestimated R. Our approach also permitted us to examine the infection-age at which secondary transmission occurs as a function of calendar time, demonstrating the downward bias during the beginning of the epidemic. These technical issues may compromise the usefulness of a well-known estimator of R - the inverse of the moment-generating function of the generation time given the intrinsic growth rate. Explicit modelling of the infection-age distribution among imported cases and the examination of the time dependency of the generation time play key roles in avoiding a biased estimate of R, especially when one only has data covering a short time interval during the early growth phase of the epidemic. © 2011 Roberts, Nishiura.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.actionen_US
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONEen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleEarly estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: Pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealanden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_US
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0017835en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79957535568en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-79957535568&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume6en_US
dc.identifier.issue5en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000291052200005-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRoberts, MG=7404029879en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_US

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