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Article: Efficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenza

TitleEfficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenza
Authors
Issue Date2010
PublisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.action
Citation
Plos One, 2010, v. 5 n. 11 How to Cite?
AbstractEarly data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) suggest that previous studies over-estimated the within-country rate of spatial spread of pandemic influenza. As large spatially resolved data sets are constructed, the need for efficient simulation code with which to investigate the spatial patterns of the pandemic becomes clear. Here, we present a significant improvement to the efficiency of an individual based stochastic disease simulation framework commonly used in multiple previous studies. We quantify the efficiency of the revised algorithm and present an alternative parameterization of the model in terms of the basic reproductive number. We apply the model to the population of Taiwan and demonstrate how the location of the initial seed can influence spatial incidence profiles and the overall spread of the epidemic. Differences in incidence are driven by the relative connectivity of alternate seed locations. The ability to perform efficient simulation allows us to run a batch of simulations and take account of their average in real time. The averaged data are stable and can be used to differentiate spreading patterns that are not readily seen by only conducting a few runs. © 2010 Tsai et al.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151727
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.057
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.395
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Centers for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taiwan, R.O.C.DOH98-DC-2036
National Science Council, Taiwan, R.O.C.97-2221-E-001-011-MY3
98-2221-E-001-013-MY3
Fogarty International Centre with the Science and Technology Directorate Department of Homeland SecurityR01 TW008246-01
Government of the Hong Kong SAR
Funding Information:

This work was supported in part by the following grants: Jen-Hsiang Chuang is supported in part by DOH98-DC-2036 from the Centers for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taiwan, R.O.C.; Tsan-sheng Hsu and Bing-Jie Shen are supported in part by 97-2221-E-001-011-MY3 from National Science Council, Taiwan, R.O.C.; Churn-Jung Liau is supported in part by 98-2221-E-001-013-MY3 from National Science Council, Taiwan, R.O.C.; Steven Riley is supported in part by R01 TW008246-01 from Fogarty International Centre, RAPIDD program from Fogarty International Centre with the Science and Technology Directorate Department of Homeland Security, and Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease of the Government of the Hong Kong SAR. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorTsai, MTen_US
dc.contributor.authorChern, TCen_US
dc.contributor.authorChuang, JHen_US
dc.contributor.authorHsueh, CWen_US
dc.contributor.authorKuo, HSen_US
dc.contributor.authorLiau, CJen_US
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorShen, BJen_US
dc.contributor.authorShen, CHen_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, DWen_US
dc.contributor.authorHsu, TSen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:27:18Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:27:18Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.citationPlos One, 2010, v. 5 n. 11en_US
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151727-
dc.description.abstractEarly data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) suggest that previous studies over-estimated the within-country rate of spatial spread of pandemic influenza. As large spatially resolved data sets are constructed, the need for efficient simulation code with which to investigate the spatial patterns of the pandemic becomes clear. Here, we present a significant improvement to the efficiency of an individual based stochastic disease simulation framework commonly used in multiple previous studies. We quantify the efficiency of the revised algorithm and present an alternative parameterization of the model in terms of the basic reproductive number. We apply the model to the population of Taiwan and demonstrate how the location of the initial seed can influence spatial incidence profiles and the overall spread of the epidemic. Differences in incidence are driven by the relative connectivity of alternate seed locations. The ability to perform efficient simulation allows us to run a batch of simulations and take account of their average in real time. The averaged data are stable and can be used to differentiate spreading patterns that are not readily seen by only conducting a few runs. © 2010 Tsai et al.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosone.org/home.actionen_US
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONEen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleEfficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenzaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S:sriley@hkucc.hku.hk, steven.riley@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_US
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0013292en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-78149491348en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-78149491348&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume5en_US
dc.identifier.issue11en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000283838600001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTsai, MT=36190058200en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChern, TC=55223644400en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChuang, JH=35232751400en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHsueh, CW=7102910903en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKuo, HS=7201654665en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLiau, CJ=7005619520en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridShen, BJ=36898704500en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridShen, CH=7402859598en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWang, DW=35293636700en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHsu, TS=7401791696en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike11863386-

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