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Article: The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication threshold

TitleThe basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication threshold
Authors
KeywordsBasic Reproduction Number
Epidemiological Model
Sir Model
Stable Age Distribution
Threshold
Issue Date2008
Citation
Mathematical Modelling Of Natural Phenomena, 2008, v. 3 n. 7, p. 194-228 How to Cite?
AbstractAlthough age-related heterogeneity of infection has been addressed in various epidemic models assuming a demographically stationary population, only a few studies have explicitly dealt with age-specific patterns of transmission in growing or decreasing population. To discuss the threshold principle realistically, the present study investigates an age-duration-structured SIR epidemic model assuming a stable host population, as the first scheme to account for the non-stationality of the host population. The basic reproduction number R 0 is derived using the next generation operator, permitting discussions over the well-known invasion principles. The condition of endemic steady state is also characterized by using the effective next generation operator. Subsequently, estimators of R 0 are offered which can explicitly account for non-zero population growth rate. Critical coverages of vaccination are also shown, highlighting the threshold condition for a population with varying size. When quantifying R 0 using the force of infection estimated from serological data, it should be remembered that the estimate increases as the population growth rate decreases. On the contrary, given the same R 0, critical coverage of vaccination in a growing population would be higher than that of decreasing population. Our exercise implies that high mass vaccination coverage at an early age would be needed to control childhood vaccine-preventable diseases in developing countries.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151689
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.82
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.462
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorInaba, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:26:42Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:26:42Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.citationMathematical Modelling Of Natural Phenomena, 2008, v. 3 n. 7, p. 194-228en_US
dc.identifier.issn0973-5348en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151689-
dc.description.abstractAlthough age-related heterogeneity of infection has been addressed in various epidemic models assuming a demographically stationary population, only a few studies have explicitly dealt with age-specific patterns of transmission in growing or decreasing population. To discuss the threshold principle realistically, the present study investigates an age-duration-structured SIR epidemic model assuming a stable host population, as the first scheme to account for the non-stationality of the host population. The basic reproduction number R 0 is derived using the next generation operator, permitting discussions over the well-known invasion principles. The condition of endemic steady state is also characterized by using the effective next generation operator. Subsequently, estimators of R 0 are offered which can explicitly account for non-zero population growth rate. Critical coverages of vaccination are also shown, highlighting the threshold condition for a population with varying size. When quantifying R 0 using the force of infection estimated from serological data, it should be remembered that the estimate increases as the population growth rate decreases. On the contrary, given the same R 0, critical coverage of vaccination in a growing population would be higher than that of decreasing population. Our exercise implies that high mass vaccination coverage at an early age would be needed to control childhood vaccine-preventable diseases in developing countries.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofMathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomenaen_US
dc.subjectBasic Reproduction Numberen_US
dc.subjectEpidemiological Modelen_US
dc.subjectSir Modelen_US
dc.subjectStable Age Distributionen_US
dc.subjectThresholden_US
dc.titleThe basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication thresholden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1051/mmnp:2008050en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-70450164770en_US
dc.identifier.volume3en_US
dc.identifier.issue7en_US
dc.identifier.spage194en_US
dc.identifier.epage228en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000207834400013-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridInaba, H=7202113278en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_US

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