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Article: The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication threshold
Title | The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication threshold |
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Authors | |
Keywords | Basic Reproduction Number Epidemiological Model Sir Model Stable Age Distribution Threshold |
Issue Date | 2008 |
Citation | Mathematical Modelling Of Natural Phenomena, 2008, v. 3 n. 7, p. 194-228 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Although age-related heterogeneity of infection has been addressed in various epidemic models assuming a demographically stationary population, only a few studies have explicitly dealt with age-specific patterns of transmission in growing or decreasing population. To discuss the threshold principle realistically, the present study investigates an age-duration-structured SIR epidemic model assuming a stable host population, as the first scheme to account for the non-stationality of the host population. The basic reproduction number R 0 is derived using the next generation operator, permitting discussions over the well-known invasion principles. The condition of endemic steady state is also characterized by using the effective next generation operator. Subsequently, estimators of R 0 are offered which can explicitly account for non-zero population growth rate. Critical coverages of vaccination are also shown, highlighting the threshold condition for a population with varying size. When quantifying R 0 using the force of infection estimated from serological data, it should be remembered that the estimate increases as the population growth rate decreases. On the contrary, given the same R 0, critical coverage of vaccination in a growing population would be higher than that of decreasing population. Our exercise implies that high mass vaccination coverage at an early age would be needed to control childhood vaccine-preventable diseases in developing countries. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/151689 |
ISSN | 2015 Impact Factor: 0.82 2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.462 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Inaba, H | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Nishiura, H | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-06-26T06:26:42Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-06-26T06:26:42Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Mathematical Modelling Of Natural Phenomena, 2008, v. 3 n. 7, p. 194-228 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0973-5348 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/151689 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Although age-related heterogeneity of infection has been addressed in various epidemic models assuming a demographically stationary population, only a few studies have explicitly dealt with age-specific patterns of transmission in growing or decreasing population. To discuss the threshold principle realistically, the present study investigates an age-duration-structured SIR epidemic model assuming a stable host population, as the first scheme to account for the non-stationality of the host population. The basic reproduction number R 0 is derived using the next generation operator, permitting discussions over the well-known invasion principles. The condition of endemic steady state is also characterized by using the effective next generation operator. Subsequently, estimators of R 0 are offered which can explicitly account for non-zero population growth rate. Critical coverages of vaccination are also shown, highlighting the threshold condition for a population with varying size. When quantifying R 0 using the force of infection estimated from serological data, it should be remembered that the estimate increases as the population growth rate decreases. On the contrary, given the same R 0, critical coverage of vaccination in a growing population would be higher than that of decreasing population. Our exercise implies that high mass vaccination coverage at an early age would be needed to control childhood vaccine-preventable diseases in developing countries. | en_US |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena | en_US |
dc.subject | Basic Reproduction Number | en_US |
dc.subject | Epidemiological Model | en_US |
dc.subject | Sir Model | en_US |
dc.subject | Stable Age Distribution | en_US |
dc.subject | Threshold | en_US |
dc.title | The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication threshold | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.email | Nishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hk | en_US |
dc.identifier.authority | Nishiura, H=rp01488 | en_US |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1051/mmnp:2008050 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-70450164770 | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 3 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issue | 7 | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 194 | en_US |
dc.identifier.epage | 228 | en_US |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000207834400013 | - |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Inaba, H=7202113278 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Nishiura, H=7005501836 | en_US |