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Article: Smallpox transmission and control: Spatial dynamics in Great Britain

TitleSmallpox transmission and control: Spatial dynamics in Great Britain
Authors
Issue Date2006
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.org
Citation
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2006, v. 103 n. 33, p. 12637-12642 How to Cite?
AbstractContingency planning for the possible deliberate reintroduction of smallpox has become a priority for many national public health organizations in recent years. We used an individual-based spatial model of smallpox transmission in Great Britain and census-derived journey-to-work data to accurately describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of an outbreak of smallpox in the community. A Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm was developed to generate sociospatial contact networks that were consistent with demographic and commuting data. We tested the sensitivity of model predictions to key epidemiological parameters before choosing three representative scenarios from within the range explored. We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics for these illustrative scenarios and assessed the efficacy of symptomatic case isolation, contact tracing with vaccination, and reactive regional mass vaccination as policy options for control. We conclude that case isolation and contact tracing with vaccination would be sufficient to halt ongoing transmission rapidly, unless policy effectiveness was compromised by resource or other constraints. A slight reduction in the expected size and duration of an outbreak could be achieved with regional mass vaccination, but these benefits are small and do not justify the high numbers of vaccine doses required and their associated negative side effects. © 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151628
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 9.423
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 6.883
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NMen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:25:40Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:25:40Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_US
dc.identifier.citationProceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2006, v. 103 n. 33, p. 12637-12642en_US
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151628-
dc.description.abstractContingency planning for the possible deliberate reintroduction of smallpox has become a priority for many national public health organizations in recent years. We used an individual-based spatial model of smallpox transmission in Great Britain and census-derived journey-to-work data to accurately describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of an outbreak of smallpox in the community. A Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm was developed to generate sociospatial contact networks that were consistent with demographic and commuting data. We tested the sensitivity of model predictions to key epidemiological parameters before choosing three representative scenarios from within the range explored. We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics for these illustrative scenarios and assessed the efficacy of symptomatic case isolation, contact tracing with vaccination, and reactive regional mass vaccination as policy options for control. We conclude that case isolation and contact tracing with vaccination would be sufficient to halt ongoing transmission rapidly, unless policy effectiveness was compromised by resource or other constraints. A slight reduction in the expected size and duration of an outbreak could be achieved with regional mass vaccination, but these benefits are small and do not justify the high numbers of vaccine doses required and their associated negative side effects. © 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.orgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
dc.subject.meshBiological Warfareen_US
dc.subject.meshBioterrorismen_US
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Disease Control - Methodsen_US
dc.subject.meshComputer Simulationen_US
dc.subject.meshContact Tracingen_US
dc.subject.meshDisaster Planningen_US
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaksen_US
dc.subject.meshGreat Britain - Epidemiologyen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshMass Vaccinationen_US
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_US
dc.subject.meshMonte Carlo Methoden_US
dc.subject.meshPublic Healthen_US
dc.subject.meshSmallpox - Epidemiology - Prevention & Control - Transmissionen_US
dc.titleSmallpox transmission and control: Spatial dynamics in Great Britainen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S:sriley@hkucc.hku.hk, steven.riley@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.0510873103en_US
dc.identifier.pmid16894173-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33747591222en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33747591222&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume103en_US
dc.identifier.issue33en_US
dc.identifier.spage12637en_US
dc.identifier.epage12642en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000239867500078-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFerguson, NM=7103246319en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike2187038-

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